A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[Matti]

Also this sounds very stupid, and I think I've read this thread 3 times but I still couldn't quite parse it out from the maps, but why DID the French manage to repel the Germans in the TL? I know they made some changes, but I didn't quite understand it. I know once the Germans decided to let themselves get encircled in Paris was the big gamechanger for the war-once that happened the French and British were able to get their shit together and also force a surrender en masse.

IIRC, there was 1 major decision which was different than OTL which was to not use the DyLe plan because General Gamelin's deputy Georges wanted a reserve force. As the DyLe plan would not have a reserve force, the Eschaut plan with some modifications was used instead which allowed for there to be a reserve.

As such, when the Germans punch through the Ardennes Forest, there is a reserve force available to counter them. As the German Panzer corps outrun their infantry support, the reserve force is able to cut the Panzer Corps off from their supply lines. The Panzer Corps try to take Paris to force a French surrender/negotiate a way out for themselves back to Germany, but they eventually surrender due to a lack of supply.

As the Western allies don't get cut off from their supply lines because of Germany's Manstein Plan/Operation Sichelschnitt (Sickle Cut), the BEF is able to continue to reinforce their army on the European mainland as was the original plan. From there, the war progresses generally the way France & the UK planned on fighting the war, by grinding the Germans down with their superior combined economies and eventual larger army.

If anyone spots any mistakes I've made, please provide corrections as I've based this on what I can remember.

Edit: Thank you AlanJWhite for the correction on spelling for plan D (Dyle instead of Dyke)

 

[AlanJWhite]

Pretty close IIRC

Except a simple typo
It was the DyLe plan not Dyke
Though also cunningly referred to as Plan D

 

[Lavender Gooms]

got it so it was the reserves being held back that allowed them to cut off the Germans. Once they get to Paris it all makes perfect sense to me, I am just not overly familiar with both sides war planning to recognize the change. Things like building up the BEF and kicking the ADA in the pants to actually do something make sense to me.

IIRC they did NOT expect the Germans to cut across the Ardennes IOTL and ITTL, but at least with a reserve they weren't caught entirely without their pants down, yes?

 

[naraht]

I'm not sure what areas took more damage iTTL than in ours. *maybe* the Eastern Netherlands and a good Chunk of Belgium and possibly Paris itself. Like OTL, it may be a while before the Rhine is cleaned of war wrecks.

 

[Maperseguir]

got it so it was the reserves being held back that allowed them to cut off the Germans. [...]
IIRC they did NOT expect the Germans to cut across the Ardennes IOTL and ITTL, but at least with a reserve they weren't caught entirely without their pants down, yes?

If I recall correctly, Pdf insisted this was very much an unforeseen result for the French. While they unlike OTL did had reserves thank to the abandonment of the Dyle-Breda plan, they were caught off guard by german speed of movement as OTL. The reserve corps was sent not to cut off the Germans after their breakthrough, but to shore up their front because the French didn't realise it had *already* been breached. The Panzer corps was actually already about 100km southwest of where the reserves were supposed to establish a frontline. Thus, the french commander on the field (Prioux, under Blanchard iirc) finds the rear/flank of the german, quickly realise what has happened and decide to make lemonade out of the big lemon that is that unforeseen german breakthrough :

Pdf27:

19th May (1940):

The leading formations of 1st Army (1er Régiment de Cuirassiers), realising that they have made contact with a German force some distance ahead of them pull back and wait for the rest of their forces to catch up. Reconnaissance troops spread out and identify that they are on the flank of a very large German force travelling south-westwards. This information is rapidly carried backwards to Corps HQ in Laon.

General Prioux discusses the situation with Brooke, who is practically salivating at the prospect of hitting a German infantry force in the flank. Prioux is similarly sanguine – has been a cavalry officer for his entire career, and what he sees in front of him is almost the dream target of cavalry. They plan an attack for the following morning, with II Corps on the left flank and the Cavalry Corps on the right. The dividing line between the two is to be the Route de Reims.

Pdf has described the entire operation as "convoluted but plausible". He wanted to find a realistic way for the French to hold off, and giving them reserves (plausible) then making them roll a natural 10 on their use (sending them in the right place for the wrong reasons) works!

 

[diestormlie]

Pdf has described the entire operation as "convoluted but plausible". He wanted to find a realistic way for the French to hold off, and giving them reserves (plausible) then making them roll a natural 10 on their use (sending them in the right place for the wrong reasons) works!

I swear, these 'Nat 1/10/20' and 'Double Sixes/Snake Eyes' idioms all become a lot more confusing to me, having played too many RPG systems.

 

[pdf27]

So I go on holiday (first actual one for a very long time) and come back to this. Lots of decent sailing and some excellent food have put me in a much better mindset than before I left.

1. The utterly appropriate death of Hitler.
2. The (Czecho)Slovaks doing Blitzkrieg in trains in December 41/January 42. The world's only rail-based Blitzkrieg. If only there had been a couple of armoured trains!
3. The naming of the operation involving Rijn barges. You utter, utter bastard. (well done!)
4. All the fascinating tech postings, especially the British aircraft and engines, a topic about which I knew very little before reading this timeline.
5. Just how hard you had to lean to give France a chance (not only did forces happen to be in the right place at the right time, but you also had to remove Gamelin and Georges from effective command and control so the local commanders could have a free hand) - but then how quickly the French army got its act together and how thoroughly it grasped at that chance.
6. Lion and Temeraire are still building. Oh, frabjous day! (also the Montanas, but I'm less bothered by things that don't carry the White Ensign)

1. It's something I thought about for a long time. It's very easy when writing the death of someone who did so many evil things to descend into revenge porn, which I didn't want to do. At the same time a low-key death (or even suicide as OTL) is not very narratively satisfying.
2. Blitzkrieg isn't really a term I'd use here. OODA loop is maybe more appropriate - the Slovaks are acting faster than the Germans can react. This isn't new - the Hundred Days in 1918 was fundamentally much the same.
3. What the hell else was I going to call it? "Successful Sealion" is such a trope I had to use it after realising that the operation really needed Rhine barges.
4. I'm an engineer, and it's a particular interest of mine. Gets a bit of a mixed reaction, but those who don't like it are welcome to write a timeline about what interests them.
5. The French were in an awkward position.
   1. They had a hell of a lot of good kit and most of the right ideas, but having an army made up of short-service conscripts and a very limited number of professional officers (due to not-unreasonable coup fears) was utterly crippling. Given a little more time and the right incentive, and I think it's entirely plausible that they would have done superbly.
   2. As for Gamelin and Georges, you've got the wrong end of the stick slightly. Due to the extremely slow flash-to-bang time in the French army, they were pretty much out of the fight as soon as the Ardennes fight started and then their HQ is right in line to be hit by the advancing Germans. By the time they're liberated, the French have other officers who look much better to the public and political class - who in reality were just in the right place at the right time.
6. So far, yes. They're essentially 9 x 16" KGVs rather than the later monsters, and are very much being built with Japan in mind.

Lol PDF is very very proud of how he killed Hitler and the people on the thread kept arguing about bananas instead.

The bananas were a deliberate red herring. I wanted to do the whole Damnatio Memoriae thing as much as possible, but not to overdo it.

It will be interesting to see whether tariffs will stay low enough that both Jamaica and Central America can supply both the US and Europe or whether the tarriffs will keep Jamaican bananas as the primary supply to Europe.

I'm assuming that they'll stay high for a while - the US isn't really in a position to force down tariff barriers.

Wasn't there also a logistics component of that banana discussion? Where part of the discussion got sidetracked into the conversion of several of the interwar surplus US four-piper destroyers into speedy transports. First for the banana run from Central America to New Orleans and other destinations, then other fast transport conversions. Or, am I conflating that train of thought with another Timeline?

That's another thread. I had included a banana ration for Christmas as a way of showing how much better the UK supply situation was, compared to OTL where it was near-catastrophic.

The whole squishy trigger thing is mainly a complaint by target/competition shooters who are used to far crisper trigger groups. The transfer bars used in bull-pup rifles apparently flex slightly, hence their squishiness. They also complain about squishy triggers in a lot of weapons, including AKs and most military rifles. It's been a standard complaint by the target/competition shooting fraternity for well over 100 years, as they mostly forget that 'good enough now' is more desired than 'perfect later' by most nations militaries.

There's a lot of tripe talked by hobbyists who forget that it's primarily about it being a military rifle. Nobody who really needs to shoot to that standard would be using a service self-loading rifle anyway!

I don't like the implications for PDF's descendants of that. Can it be 2070 at least?

2070 actually works out about right.

I'm sorry, this is a Wendy's Blunted Sickle. We math it out, here.

Always. It's a personal bugbear when threads don't.

Also this sounds very stupid, and I think I've read this thread 3 times but I still couldn't quite parse it out from the maps, but why DID the French manage to repel the Germans in the TL? I know they made some changes, but I didn't quite understand it. I know once the Germans decided to let themselves get encircled in Paris was the big gamechanger for the war-once that happened the French and British were able to get their shit together and also force a surrender en masse.

1. In late 1939 when the Dyle plan was being considered, Georges opposed it because it didn't allow the French to keep a significant reserve, and he cited the risk of a German attack at Sedan (this is OTL). The divergence is that instead of being brushed off (Gamelin was a political enemy of his), he finds the right form of words for Gamelin to have second thoughts.
2. Instead of becoming ever more gung ho with the Breda variant of the Dyle plan (which makes sense given a lot of WW1 experience), Gamelin instead adopts a less bold plan where they hold on the Escaut instead and keep a powerful reserve in the centre.
3. When the Germans attack, the Dutch defences hold as the bridge over the Hollands Diep wasn't being held open in the hope of French help. This means Fortress Holland actually holds at the Water Line.
4. When they hit the French lines at Sedan, they break through pretty much as OTL. However, the different distribution of forces facing them means that they decide to go for Paris rather than the Channel Coast. This is a really fateful decision, and one that they seem to have nearly made in OTL having spent 4 years in the last war just out of reach of Paris.
5. The French HQ orders the reserves to plug the gap the Germans are plunging into. Unfortunately, given the very slow decision making progress in the French army at the time (entirely OTL) the order is far too late and the spearheads are a very long way past the reserves and on the outskirts of Paris already.
6. The reserves are led by some of the better senior officers on the Entente side - notably Alanbrooke - and realise the opportunity in front of them. Meanwhile, the Panzer spearheads have outrun their fuel supplies and this bogs them down.
7. The spearhead - which has the very best of the German troops - is then cut off in Paris, essentially setting up Stalingrad-on-Seine. The logistics of trying to relieve them when you're already fighting at the end of a single road are crippling, and not long after they surrender.
8. The Entente troops get a major morale boost, and the Germans lose a significant fraction of their best assault troops (the Panzers). This essentially means that the summer fighting degenerates into something of a stalemate.
9. Time and resources are not on the side of the Germans - they had essentially one very good chance, and if they blew it the war is all over bar the shooting due to their severe resource constraints. The question is the duration of the war and shape of the post-war world.

Pdf has described the entire operation as "convoluted but plausible". He wanted to find a realistic way for the French to hold off, and giving them reserves (plausible) then making them roll a natural 10 on their use (sending them in the right place for the wrong reasons) works!

Pretty much. I don't buy the idea that the Germans were very lucky to win at all in 1940 (which unfortunately this thread seems to have encouraged), but I think this thread is fairly plausible.

 

[naraht]

In terms of Tarriff walls staying high, I presume that one of the *large* factors in when the tarriffs drop is whether the Entente and the US are together on a war against Japan,

The RN will probably be shifting even *more* of their Navy from the Atlantic in the short term and the Americans will *probably* drift that way slightly. As of March 1, I'm not honestly convinced that the IJN could win a one-on-one fight with the RN in the Far East.

 

[benackerton]

Gamelin instead adopts a less bold plan where they hold on the Escaut

I hate to be a nitpicking arse, really. I actually found your story fantastic, and that (small) critic is not against you - but against the premise of the Gamelin - Georges dynamics.
- they hated each others (George should have Gamelin job back in 1935, but he had been badly crippled on October 9, 1934 in Marseille: the day the King of Yugoslavia died, and Louis Barthou along him. Georges survived by some miracle, but Gamelin got the Generalissimo job instead, to replace Weygand.)
- Gamelin was a stubborn dickhead who would listen nobody, and even less Georges
- Dropping Breda or even Dyle was politically impossible (Gamelin was good friend with Daladier, those two were twin calamities that sunk 1940 France almost by themselves).

This said, you corrected the - insignificant - mistake by having Gamelin and Georges being captured soon thereafters - hence out of the game entirely.

TBH, Gamelin being taken out was the best thing in a millenia that could happen to the French military. The more I learn about Gamelin via France Fights On endless discussions, the more I realize the man was hopeless. He was a French Cadorna, and the 1940 campaign was his Caporetto magnum opus. Over a millenia of French history, 1940 is only matched by Azincourt and Crecy military disasters of the Hundred years war. The kind of military defeat that almost disintegrates the country for good.

I know from one of the FFO founding fathers, a former physician, that it is now proven through his declassifed military file that Gamelin brains were fried by advanced syphillis. The exact influence of the illness is hard to assess, but still - just think about it.

France went to war in 1940 with a Generalissimo whose brains were badly damaged by syphillis. Frack.

 

[Dageraad]

There is a thin line between a good AH story and a story that is essentialy fantasy.
Both have their merits, and for me 'a blunted sickle' is one of the best AH.

The point of departure matters a lot. Is it a logical and understandable or something made up, like an alien invasion.
Somewere on this board is a timeline based on one single grain of sand.
The reasons why the French choose another strategy are viable to me. For each step after that the story becomes less of a history and more of a fantasy.


Next is the logic behind the follow-on of the POD.
You can make a chain of events from the POD and timeline gets stronger through research, input from experts and readers
but the chain weakens with each extra choice the writer(s) make. Often an extra POD has to be introduced.

-The French don't sent the reserves too far to the north, so they have enough reserves to prevent a dash to the channel.
Plausible

-The Dutch blow the Moerdijk Bridge, preventing the fall of Rotterdam and keeping them in the war. The Germans don't have the tiime to conquer all of Norway.
Plausible.

-The Germans go for Paris, as they have some momentum, they are going for the kill and this was the target of WO1 in the first place.
Plausible,

-The French do not collapse
More or less plausible. I have no idea.

- The Germans are stopped
Probably

-The Germans are pushed back, as they are outproduced by the allies
Considering the rest of the timeline, very likely.

- Germany completely collapses in the winter of 41-42.
Likely, but I would have expected some remaining diehards.
Nice ending of Hitler though. For me, this is the logical end of the historical analysis and it would have been good ending of the story.

Consequences for Japan, the de-colonisation of the empires, the American election of 1944?
- I have absolutely no idea.

 

[pdf27]

I hate to be a nitpicking arse, really. I actually found your story fantastic, and that (small) critic is not against you - but against the premise of the Gamelin - Georges dynamics.
- they hated each others (George should have Gamelin job back in 1935, but he had been badly crippled on October 9, 1934 in Marseille: the day the King of Yugoslavia died, and Louis Barthou along him. Georges survived by some miracle, but Gamelin got the Generalissimo job instead, to replace Weygand.)
- Gamelin was a stubborn dickhead who would listen nobody, and even less Georges
- Dropping Breda or even Dyle was politically impossible (Gamelin was good friend with Daladier, those two were twin calamities that sunk 1940 France almost by themselves).

This said, you corrected the - insignificant - mistake by having Gamelin and Georges being captured soon thereafters - hence out of the game entirely.

It's definitely one of the weak points of the story, but I think it's OK (and I retconned it slightly in the .pdf version). The idea is that Georges chips in when the Dyle plan is first being considered (and the Escaut plan is still the official one) and causes Gamelin to have doubts about it. Further checking intensifies these doubts, and he ends up staying with a modified version of the Escaut plan - for which the Belgians can be blamed.
Having the French fight a successful Dyle-Breda campaign is almost impossible, however, and this was the particular POD I wanted to look at. On balance I'm happy with the amount of handwavium required to get there.

Nice ending of Hitler though. For me, this is the logical end of the historical analysis and it would have been good ending of the story.

Consequences for Japan, the de-colonisation of the empires, the American election of 1944?
- I have absolutely no idea.

Yeah, but that's where things start to get interesting for me. I'm never going to be a professional author (too good at the day-job), so I'm writing what interests me.

 

[benackerton]

Having the French fight a successful Dyle-Breda campaign is almost impossible, however, and this was the particular POD I wanted to look at. On balance I'm happy with the amount of handwavium required to get there.

No disagreement with that point. The moment France advanced into Belgium, whether the German attack was in the center flatlands or in the south-Ardennes, the french atrocious OODA loop essentially doomed them. So better to stick with Escaut. Smaller lines, familiar teritory - it can only help (and any help is very welcome !)

 

[LordVorKon]

Somewere on this board is a timeline based on one single grain of sand.

Are you thinking of An Extra Knot?

 

[Dageraad]

Are you thinking of An Extra Knot?

Yes. An excercise in minimal POD's

 

[twovultures]

Finally finished reading through this timeline. My wife's been on a WWII documentary kick, so it's been very gratifying reading about a scenario where France is able to claw its way out of the maw of defeat! Greatly looking forward to further updates and the fate of Poland after the war.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Finally finished reading through this timeline. My wife's been on a WWII documentary kick, so it's been very gratifying reading about a scenario where France is able to claw its way out of the maw of defeat! Greatly looking forward to further updates and the fate of Poland after the war.

I do enjoy PODs that has La France doing better and even prevailing in May/June 1940 - its such an interesting POD because it has some massive implications in that Italy might make the only winning move, Japan certainly does and is Russia even invaded and does what exactly?

 

[Popcorn]

Just finished a reread and I have some comments:

I can live with the lack of thread marks.
I can accept the death of Roald Dahl.
You ended part one only fifteen comments short of ten thousand. You are an inhuman monster for this and I can never forgive that.

 

[pdf27]

I do enjoy PODs that has La France doing better and even prevailing in May/June 1940 - its such an interesting POD because it has some massive implications in that Italy might make the only winning move, Japan certainly does and is Russia even invaded and does what exactly?

Imperial Japan certainly making the right decisions in international relations is... a brave assumption.

You ended part one only fifteen comments short of ten thousand. You are an inhuman monster for this and I can never forgive that.

Well obviously. This whole story is largely an exercise in slaughtering sacred cows, what else am I going to do?

 

[Salamander]

I do enjoy PODs that has La France doing better and even prevailing in May/June 1940 - its such an interesting POD because it has some massive implications in that Italy might make the only winning move, Japan certainly does and is Russia even invaded and does what exactly?

Imperial Japan certainly making the right decisions in international relations is... a brave assumption.

Imperial Japanese policy wasn't so much a series of compromises between two factions that had come to loathe each other, but more a series of decisions designed to prevent the brutal assassinations of the politicians, generals, & admirals who made those decisions.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Imperial Japan certainly making the right decisions in international relations is... a brave assumption.


Well obviously. This whole story is largely an exercise in slaughtering sacred cows, what else am I going to do?

Much of what Japan and to a lesser extent Italy did in 1940-1942 was opportunistic based on the weakness of the Europeans and a then as yet unready USA.

If France and (possibly the Netherlands) is not defeated in 1940 and Italy winds its neck in, the Japanese are less likely to pounce on FIC, are then not heavily sanctioned by the USA and others resulting in them going full ‘climb mount Niitaka’ and making WW2 a true world war.

Granted as you say the leadership in Japan was……batshitcrazy so it’s not a hill I am prepared to die on.

But part of the whole Dec 1941 thing is far less likely to happen if Japan was not starved of resources by the Democracies led by the USA largely over the invasion of French Indi China in June 1940.