OTL Churchill promised Benny a place at the winner's table if he remained neutral and frankly the Entente had a lot less problem if they keep Italy quiet as the other two potential enemy (URSS and Japan) are much more dangerous and aggressive. Oh he will hate it really, but for now he is forced to concentrate his attention towards the URSS, as if he think to enter the war to get some spoil he surely image that Stalin will get the same idea and maybe even try to snatch some other part of Romania and Hungary, if/when this happen Italy will DoW Germany to try to avoid soviets troops getting in Austria.
A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
- Thread starter pdf27
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OTL Churchill promised Benny a place at the winner's table if he remained neutral and frankly the Entente had a lot less problem if they keep Italy quiet as the other two potential enemy (URSS and Japan) are much more dangerous and aggressive. Oh he will hate it really, but for now he is forced to concentrate his attention towards the URSS, as if he think to enter the war to get some spoil he surely image that Stalin will get the same idea and maybe even try to snatch some other part of Romania and Hungary, if/when this happen Italy will DoW Germany to try to avoid soviets troops getting in Austria.
Actually it will be Mavis from Barnsley, who is worried about her Eric. His letters home recently have been all about being wet and miserable living in a shell scrape near the front, or the RAF not turning up because of the low cloud leaving them to attack by themselves. Or maybe Jeanette from Clermont-Ferrand, whose father and elder brother were both killed in the last war and whose husband is now a sergeant in the tanks this time around, who is desperately worried that her own children will grow up as orphans. There are going to be several million stories just like that, and every one of them has a vote. Compared to the retired colonels living in Tunbridge Wells, who last fought at the battle of Mboto Gorge and who think the modern army has gone soft, it really is no contest.
The main ammunition was HESH for the Burney Gun (recoilless rifles don't do high velocity very well), which will go splat rather than right through. Of course, the scab blown off the inside of the armour may end up being larger than the original plate itself for some of the Japanese tanks...
No mention of them in the story so far - any preferences?
The difference from OTL 1940 (IIRC it was while France is collapsing) is that Winston won't feel like he has to be generous to the Italians. Sure, what they've done has been helpful - but ultimately the Entente would have won the war at pretty much the same rate either way. Italy entering the war now would be little more than a nuisance.
France collapsing or not, keeping Italy neutral will be Paris and London priority in 1940 as Rome was still considered one of the big guys (the fragility of the armed forces were not know at the time) and a Dow from her will have open a lot more of theater, buying time for the Germans to rest and reequip...and will have give some overture to the Japanese, will have the Entente win? Sure, it will be longer and costlyer in both blood and treasure? You can bet it your house.
Going back to the current situation, Italy for now had more influence in the Balkans, sorry but between Poland and Czechslovackia, the Entente assurance have a lot less appeal than in 1938 and the italians at least at put booths in place; plus with the entente and Germany occupied it plan for economic penetration in Romania and neigbouring countries will have continued (and Hungary was in the last 15 years one of the big italian military and economic patner) and some more in Spain due to being the only fascist power remained and supporter of Franco.
Taking in consideration that even with Berlin out, the soviet and japanese menace remain at the horizon, so keeping good relations with Benny due to the strategic importantance of Italy remain very important for the Entente, this mean that they will give up everything to Mussolini? No, absolutely but it also mean that italian interest will be needed to be taken in consideration and something given up
Stories change with debate, including this one.
The points I have made - which don't seem to upset pdf27 - are exactly the ones which will be being made and with far more vehemence in TTL by people from the very top downwards.
For the Entente *at this point*, the future war planners at their War Colleges split the other world powers into two parts.
Not likely to go to war with over the next decade: Italy, US
Entirely conceivable to go to war with over the next decade: SU, JP.
That doesn't mean that a British Spy should trust the American or Italian spy that they are working with, but the Americans and Italians have been instructed to steal the plans, not kill you.
Or to put it another way, the St. Lawrence Seaway will be built, it just may not be *celebrated* in the same way.
in TTL current date, that day will also be being recalled.
The veterans of the Great War will be remembering another occasion when the Germans have been driven to edge of defeat
and ask for an armistice saying
"Look we have got rid of the leaders responsible for the war, we the innocent people are suffering. Have mercy, we are a new Germany"
and knowing how that turned out ... will realise just how much mercy should be given to this Germany.
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I think he means for WW2. I haven't mentioned it anywhere in the story, past or future: one for TTL's future historians perhaps?
Ryan
Donor
sorry I goofed;
I misread the comment I replied to and thought it was someone else asking what starinski meant by "Hundred years ago, it was Heer's black day.", not realising that it was starinksi themself.
I doubt Italy will be able to get very much by this stage - the Entente leadership will be well aware of the relative power of Italy as compared to Germany, and having just crushed Germany there isn't very much that the Italians can do. That doesn't mean they'll be nasty about it - as we've already seen the Entente are happy to sell stuff to the Italians - but any attempt by Mussolini to say "give me stuff" will be met with muffled laughter from Paris and London.
I read all of the points people make in this thread, and if I find them persuasive then the story is amended accordingly (including changing past updates if needed). However, I'm quite happy to ignore people who I don't find persuasive and really don't care what they say so long as it isn't grossly and personally offensive - it's all water of a duck's back to me.
I'd divide them up a bit differently:
Allies: France, the UK, their various imperial possessions and dominions, the current European countries fighting alongside them.
Friendly Neutral: Sweden/Finland Union, marginally the USA.
Neutral whose interests currently coincide with ours: Italy, Spain, Portugal, most of South America, etc.
Neutral but dodgy as a nine Franc note: USSR. Some of the Eastern European countries are teetering on the edge of this list (Hungary, etc.)
Probable enemy currently being kept honest because we've got the biggest fleet in the area: Japan
Country I'm most likely to have to fight next after this war is over: Germany, Austria
There is probably going to be quite a lot of mercy, but one thing that will be completely absent is trust. It will be a long time before a German in uniform is allowed anything more dangerous than a water pistol.
SsgtC
Banned
And they won't be allowed to have anything in the water pistol on the off chance it's anything other than water
Italy gain will be already prearranged at the time of her keeping neutrality and it's more probable that Mussolini will not say 'give me stuff' but simply tell the troops to pass the Brennero and occupy Austria and present everybody with a fait accomplit (and the Germans will prefer surrender to the italians that to the entente); the problem for the Entente is that suuure they have just crushed Germany, but not only they face the big bad soviet bear (with the Japanese samurai just behind the corner) the tresure while not depleted like OTL has been spent a lot and getting in a new armed conflict with the Italian for the spoil it will need as a bullet in stomach and not very popular.
Sorry pdf27, i know that's your story, but frankly the entire strategic position of the entente it's not that safe and there are still plenty of enemies so more than muffled laughter Paris and London will go with a forced smile if Benny keep things limited and hostility if he exagerate.
I think the Italians tried attacking into the Austrian mountains in WW1; it didn't go particularly easy. In fact, launching such an offensive might be the only way for Germany to still score any battlefield victory (what with the Entente being rather risk-averse and attacking across a wide open plain).
Maybe the day when the French First Army and the 1st Corps of the BEF cut Heergruppe A in half?
The question about Italy is to what degree would the British and French (and the USA) be willing to give help to Haile Selassie. iOTL, the British were willing to help him (he was in Britain at the time) kick the Italians out of Ethiopia. Given the number of troops from Africa in this war, he might actually be able to put together a decent rebel force from Veterans trained in Europe. He has a *very* different 1940s...
Two comments on the list.
I *really* think that Salazar in Portugal belongs on the Friendly Neutral list rather than with Spain and Italy.
After the war, I think we'll see some of the countries in Eastern Europe try to replace Italian influence with French. And Greece probably belongs in the "Neutral whose", Metaxas in Greece is also tied to the British in a way that no one else in the area is...
Is that a spoiler that there will actually be a country *called* Germany in 1943? (as opposed to Hanover, Prussia, etc, etc.)
Total different border, the current border not only favor Italy in the defense but also in the offense (plus there are no fortification and very limited troops against specializated alpine troops.
The problem is that also Italy had a total different 1940's, no war partecipation so the only military adventure for now will be eliminate the remaining Ethiopian resistances and for the Entente aid i doubt that they will continue once Italy has declared and keept neutrality even because at May 1940 were on the initial stages and had just contacted the resistance, i doubt that London want to create a serious diplomatic incident at the moment (OTL reasoning was that Italy entering the war at German side was just a matter of time, once Benny agree officially to remain neutral, the situation change a lot)
Why would you want a Salient rather than driving *every* single German soldier all the way to the Soviet lines...
Even if its French Foreign Legion and Kings German Legion uniforms?