Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)

[moopli]

Looking forward to the Confederate NazBol revolution, sure to promise yet more interesting times!

 

[SultanArda]

TRIGGER WARNING​

"...levels of denial about how bad conditions were actually getting. Miserable as they may have been in cold trenches, especially the men huddled together in the frigid "Red Snow" around Chattanooga, Yankee soldiers received fresh and warm bread every day, soup with beef, chicken and vegetables, and when on leave on the Eastern Front had Baltimore and Philadelphia to visit for a week. Across the no man's land that separated the armies was a bleaker picture - skinny, emaciated Confederate soldiers eating bread composed mostly of sawdust and soup that was often little more than broth and whatever the cooks could find on hand that day, and they were rarely if ever granted leave for more than a few days, and then demanded to stay proximate, out of concern from the upper ranks that they would desert and go home. Dixie's forces were hungrier, more exhausted, and less respected by their superiors than the enemy, and as the war entered its final year it was beginning to become glaringly obvious.

But, at least, the command economy imposed by the Confederate War Department starting in early 1915 and dominated by the logistics-obsessed Ordnance chief John Taliaferro saw to it that the Confederate Army actually had food. If the dark days of the Lean Winter of 1914-15 had not already impressed upon Confederate policymakers the dire conditions in the countryside, the Hunger Winter of 1915-16 ended any such pretensions. The year before, at least, the Confederacy enjoyed open trade through a variety of ports with the outside world, but after Hilton Head and Florida Straits the blockade had tightened like a vice and no food got in or out of Confederate Gulf ports in particular. While the Confederacy had always enjoyed ample, high-quality farmland for agriculture, many plantations were still growing large quantities of cotton or other cash crops (though at a reduced level compared to the antebellum years) out of some misguided belief that, sooner or later, the markets for cotton would recover and pent-up demand would reimburse them after several hard years. The Army requisitioned tens of thousands of pounds of food per day, meaning that after a mediocre harvest in late 1915 there was barely anything left for the civilians in charge of growing it.

Compounding problems was the importation of slaves into factories to do the work that white laborers would have done prior to the war thanks to extreme shortages, thus leaving farmland even less sufficiently worked than it had already, and the conditions that these slaves were subjected to in the increasingly strained factories of central Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas were the stuff of horror films. An estimated one in six bonded men who were sent to the factories or pit mines died from abuse, exhaustion or attacks by white labor uneasy about its work; crematoria were set up on many factory grounds in late 1916 to burn the corpses of those who had simply collapsed and expired on the job. Race and food riots plagued multiple cities across the Confederate industrial belt, most famously in Macon, Georgia on February 2nd, 1916, to the point that in February 1916 the Army internally circulated a "semi-secret" memorandum effectively questioning the security of the Presidential transition due by the 22nd when Ellison Smith would hand power over to James Vardaman.

But most slaves, being an investment and significant outlay of capital by their owners, were decently fed, at least compared to the yeomanry of the rural Confederacy, which in the Hunger Winter essentially titled into near-anarchy. A British diplomat who toured the Appalachian foothills of North Carolina described conditions as "pre-industrial" in a note back to Britain that inspired the British government to attempt to sponsor Red Cross humanitarian aid for civilians. Horses, despite their value, were slaughtered for meat, and famed Confederate writer William Faulkner, having lost a leg at Nashville and recuperating at home in Mississippi, recalled gangs of children wandering the woods searching for squirrels, rats and even cats to kill and bring home for at least a morsel of meat. Prices of all goods spiked as wartime scarcity created a thriving black-market economy, and the informal, totally unregulated Home Guard either participated in it and killed rivals or took the law into their own hands and violently lynched smugglers alongside accused deserters, who were seldom if ever given a chance to explain and sometimes included soldiers on leave. Anywhere between a hundred and fifty to two hundred civilians, more than quadruple the number of the winter before, starved or froze to death in the Confederacy during those dark months, and spring offered little to no respite from the horrors of the slow-moving final collapse of Dixie ahead of the armistice. [1]

The government was largely inured to these problems; despite his base coming from the yeomanry, Vardaman haughtily dismissed those complaining of hunger as simply insufficiently motivated to fight for the Confederacy, despite increasingly alarmed missives from the War Department and various governors describing what was actually happening on the ground. The government had commandeered the production side of the Confederate economy but financed it exclusively with bonds predicated on victory; unlike the United States, where the income tax had been quintupled in the space of two years from five to twenty-five percent despite the reservations of the Hughes administration (which had ironically campaigned on maintaining the tax rate at five percent in perpetuity) [2] in order to finance the war, and even then the United States left the conflict in the end with a huge load of new debt to be serviced. The Confederacy had not even levied an income tax at all, and European banks were starting to ask very pointedly where, exactly, Richmond expected to scrounge together the money to keep paying for their campaigns. Vardaman, to be sure, was open to such a tax, but his new Bourbon allies in Congress were not, and the fragile finances of Dixie thus started to come unglued along with its war machine and civilian infrastructure as the Hunger Winter delivered a body blow from which it could not recover..."

- Total Mobilization: The Economics of the Great American War

[1] We've arrived at the Full Cold Mountain
[2] It's enormously funny to me Hughes has basically had to backtrack on every campaign promise he made thanks to the war

So, Confederacy suffers from supply problem, and as everyone knows, if your supply ends, the war will be lost, as hungry soldiers will not fight with an empty stomach and the home front will collapse.
That being said, there are countries that win wars without much supplies… not that Confederacy will be saved, as they all survived due to the circumstances I write below (if it is wrong, please correct me) :

-The enemy is the same or even worse in the supply category (Nope, American soldiers and populations are well-fed)
-All you have to do for a victory is throwing the final punch (Nope, Confederacy lost important cities, and is facing a rebellion in Texas)
-You can loot food, both from enemy and from your population, to buy enough time for final punch (This is the only chance of the Confederacy to win the war, and even then, they are not even close to the final punch)

 

[Gman]

It was said that the income tax went from 5% to 25%, but the 1910 Revenue Act had a base rate of 15%from $5 000, and 20% from $10 000, so did Hughes drop it in his first year?

 

[KingSweden24]

Looking forward to the Confederate NazBol revolution, sure to promise yet more interesting times!

Lol can you imagine actual NazBols in the CSA? *shudders*

So, Confederacy suffers from supply problem, and as everyone knows, if your supply ends, the war will be lost, as hungry soldiers will not fight with an empty stomach and the home front will collapse.
That being said, there are countries that win wars without much supplies… not that Confederacy will be saved, as they all survived due to the circumstances I write below (if it is wrong, please correct me) :

-The enemy is the same or even worse in the supply category (Nope, American soldiers and populations are well-fed)
-All you have to do for a victory is throwing the final punch (Nope, Confederacy lost important cities, and is facing a rebellion in Texas)
-You can loot food, both from enemy and from your population, to buy enough time for final punch (This is the only chance of the Confederacy to win the war, and even then, they are not even close to the final punch)

Well put

It was said that the income tax went from 5% to 25%, but the 1910 Revenue Act had a base rate of 15%from $5 000, and 20% from $10 000, so did Hughes drop it in his first year?

D’oh!

TFW you just crib figures from the UK in WW1 instead of reading your own work 🤦‍♂️

Short answer is Kern is not letting that aggressive of a tax cut past the Dem Senate so no, probably not. That isn’t to say that a tax cut to, say, 12.5% or something is infeasible, but not that. I shall correct

 

[Aged_Urbanist]

hundred and fifty to two hundred civilians

... thousands, surely?

 

[KingSweden24]

... thousands, surely?

Yes, good catch!

 

[Aged_Urbanist]

Yes, good catch!

I imagined; probably 150-200 people starve to death in the developed world today each year despite our vastly better access to foodstuffs. That case out in Colorado being one of the ways...

 

[naraht]

A few points here. Visiting Baltimore indicates that the city has recovered to some degree, OTOH, Washington DC. The fact that soldiers on leave can travel 200 miles (presumably) by rail for leave to Philadelphia indicates that the US is producing enough coal that they don't have to worry that much about it. (It also probably means that the US probably has functioning rail connections as far south as the KY/TN border) It seems that while the CSA forces have reached OTL Germany 1917, the US forces are actually in *better* shape than the French forces in 1917. (And I'm wondering whether either the US or French Forces in OTL 1917 got fresh warm bread. (My concerns isn't supplies reaching France, it is having bakers that close to the front lines). And I could easily imagine some of the US Soldiers feeling that they get better meals from the US Army than they had at home!

I feel that the US is even into 1916 is probably still looking at a *surplus* of wheat, even with being able to ship through Canada, the supply chain issues for International shipping are likely to cause problems (as well as the loss of markets in Mexico and the CSA).


We aren't looking at the worthlessness of the Confederate Currently of OTL 1864, but we *are* getting there. As for the US, I'm not sure that they can extract enough post-war money from all of their enemies combined to make much of a dent in the debt. But still far easier as a winner than as a loser.


On the subject of Grain. Without Russia joining alt - World War I, the World prices for Grain aren't likely to spike as *much* as they did iOTL, which means that there will be less farming in marginal areas of Southwest Kansas, Northern 2ROT and Southeast Colorado, which is likely to make the effects of the 1930s droughts less severe (whether that corresponds with an economic bust of the Great Depression is another question)
I do wonder how long it will take before the first Grain shipments going through New Orleans are going to take. We could honestly see the US shipping gigantic barges full of grain past starving confederates.

 

[naraht]

Note, with the emphasis on the barbarity of the Belgian princes. I don't expect the trigger for the war to be a murder/assassination, I expect it to be a sexual crime. (Any German Princesses under age 18?)

 

[naraht]

In terms of the confederates taking supplies from the US Population, I'm not sure the author has indicated when and if the Confederacy controlled land in far southern Missouri (Ozarks) and far southern West Virginia (Appalachians)

 

[KingSweden24]

I imagined; probably 150-200 people starve to death in the developed world today each year despite our vastly better access to foodstuffs. That case out in Colorado being one of the ways...

Oh totally. 150-200 strikes me as a low estimate even with the dramatic exponential reduction in famines since the Green Revolution

A few points here. Visiting Baltimore indicates that the city has recovered to some degree, OTOH, Washington DC. The fact that soldiers on leave can travel 200 miles (presumably) by rail for leave to Philadelphia indicates that the US is producing enough coal that they don't have to worry that much about it. (It also probably means that the US probably has functioning rail connections as far south as the KY/TN border) It seems that while the CSA forces have reached OTL Germany 1917, the US forces are actually in *better* shape than the French forces in 1917. (And I'm wondering whether either the US or French Forces in OTL 1917 got fresh warm bread. (My concerns isn't supplies reaching France, it is having bakers that close to the front lines). And I could easily imagine some of the US Soldiers feeling that they get better meals from the US Army than they had at home!

I feel that the US is even into 1916 is probably still looking at a *surplus* of wheat, even with being able to ship through Canada, the supply chain issues for International shipping are likely to cause problems (as well as the loss of markets in Mexico and the CSA).


We aren't looking at the worthlessness of the Confederate Currently of OTL 1864, but we *are* getting there. As for the US, I'm not sure that they can extract enough post-war money from all of their enemies combined to make much of a dent in the debt. But still far easier as a winner than as a loser.


On the subject of Grain. Without Russia joining alt - World War I, the World prices for Grain aren't likely to spike as *much* as they did iOTL, which means that there will be less farming in marginal areas of Southwest Kansas, Northern 2ROT and Southeast Colorado, which is likely to make the effects of the 1930s droughts less severe (whether that corresponds with an economic bust of the Great Depression is another question)
I do wonder how long it will take before the first Grain shipments going through New Orleans are going to take. We could honestly see the US shipping gigantic barges full of grain past starving confederates.

Western OK isn’t particularly populated, either. So the epicenter of the Dust Bowl is much less effected. You’d still have a minor Dust Bowl, but not the apocalypse of otl

Note, with the emphasis on the barbarity of the Belgian princes. I don't expect the trigger for the war to be a murder/assassination, I expect it to be a sexual crime. (Any German Princesses under age 18?)

Interesting! Do note that it’s only Steffie whose the unrepentant sex criminal, Leopold and Philippe are just ordinary dickheads

In terms of the confederates taking supplies from the US Population, I'm not sure the author has indicated when and if the Confederacy controlled land in far southern Missouri (Ozarks) and far southern West Virginia (Appalachians)

Probably some skirmishes/raids but nothing sustained. That’s tough territory as it is

 

[Reisen Storm]

Vardaman haughtily dismissed those complaining of hunger as simply insufficiently motivated to fight for the Confederacy, despite increasingly alarmed missives from the War Department and various governors describing what was actually happening on the ground.

Can’t wait for his post-war presidency to be nothing but everyone hating him.

 

[traveller76]

While the Confederacy had always enjoyed ample, high-quality farmland for agriculture, many plantations were still growing large quantities of cotton or other cash crops (though at a reduced level compared to the antebellum years) out of some misguided belief that, sooner or later, the markets for cotton would recover and pent-up demand would reimburse them after several hard years.

"Yes Sir, cotton will make a comeback! By the way, what's a Boll Weevil?"

From Wikipedia: The insect crossed the Rio Grande near Brownsville, Texas, to enter the United States from Mexico in 1892 and reached southeastern Alabama in 1909. By the mid-1920s, it had entered all cotton-growing regions in the U.S., traveling 40 to 160 miles per year. It remains the most destructive cotton pest in North America. Since the boll weevil entered the United States, it has cost U.S. cotton producers about $13 billion, and in recent times about $300 million per year.

Boll weevil - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Devoid]

"Yes Sir, cotton will make a comeback! By the way, what's a Boll Weevil?"

From Wikipedia: The insect crossed the Rio Grande near Brownsville, Texas, to enter the United States from Mexico in 1892 and reached southeastern Alabama in 1909. By the mid-1920s, it had entered all cotton-growing regions in the U.S., traveling 40 to 160 miles per year. It remains the most destructive cotton pest in North America. Since the boll weevil entered the United States, it has cost U.S. cotton producers about $13 billion, and in recent times about $300 million per year.

Boll weevil - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ellison "Cotton Ed" Smith's legacy in tatters (as it should be, considering, according to Wikipedia, he once stormed into the office of Alger Hiss, of all people, and screamed that he basically wanted to bring slavery back. In the 1930's. In our timeline. Isn't reading quotes from pre-1960's (mostly, sends a death stare in the directions of Strom Thurmond and Jesse Helms) Southern politicians fun?)

 

[naraht]

Oh totally. 150-200 strikes me as a low estimate even with the dramatic exponential reduction in famines since the Green Revolution

Western OK isn’t particularly populated, either. So the epicenter of the Dust Bowl is much less effected. You’d still have a minor Dust Bowl, but not the apocalypse of otl

Interesting! Do note that it’s only Steffie whose the unrepentant sex criminal, Leopold and Philippe are just ordinary dickheads

Probably some skirmishes/raids but nothing sustained. That’s tough territory as it is

Didn't include W OK, since it is just the far end of North 2ROT iTTL. And from what I've studied far Northeast New Mexico was hit as well. Still trying to figure out if *anyone* is living there iTTL, but then I wonder the same thing about OTL.

Can I reserve a like to be used in whatever posting has the death of Steffie?

Yeah, there is a reason that the fronts don't easily merge into each other.

"Yes Sir, cotton will make a comeback! By the way, what's a Boll Weevil?"

From Wikipedia: The insect crossed the Rio Grande near Brownsville, Texas, to enter the United States from Mexico in 1892 and reached southeastern Alabama in 1909. By the mid-1920s, it had entered all cotton-growing regions in the U.S., traveling 40 to 160 miles per year. It remains the most destructive cotton pest in North America. Since the boll weevil entered the United States, it has cost U.S. cotton producers about $13 billion, and in recent times about $300 million per year.

Boll weevil - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I expect that the disruption of the South *may* slow down the spread of the Boll weevil (as well as to some degree the fact that the south will probably be growing more food at the expense of Cotton), but the south will *definitely* be hit had without the resources to fight it.
And whether the USA gives a rat's hindquarters will depend on how much cotton that the US is growing in California. The fact that Mexico can't be bullied to the same degree as iOTL will mean that the US can't take as much water out of the Colorado which probably reduces the use of the Central Valley of California for agriculture. The fact that the CSA will attempt to control it with pesticides probably means more pesticide poisoning from various chemicals. While the Bald Eagle can almost certainly replenish from the USA side of the border, could this be a TL where the Alligator is driven to extinction by the use of DDT, (That may depend on to what degree and how Florida is developed) (balanced by the passenger pigeon surviving in the I.T.???)

 

[naraht]

Ellison "Cotton Ed" Smith's legacy in tatters (as it should be, considering, according to Wikipedia, he once stormed into the office of Alger Hiss, of all people, and screamed that he basically wanted to bring slavery back. In the 1930's. In our timeline. Isn't reading quotes from pre-1960's (mostly, sends a death stare in the directions of Strom Thurmond and Jesse Helms) Southern politicians fun?)

Though I do have some African-American friends who would take a description of being the same color as "Melted Midnight" to be a compliment!

 

[ChrisTheCat]

I have to wonder how many more updates will be dedicated to the final year of the GAW? It is great reading but I'm very keen on the rest of the world, particularly China and Japan, as well as the CEW. I can't wait to see what happens next, love this timeline!

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Can’t wait for his post-war presidency to be nothing but everyone hating him.

Assassination....the easy way out for him.

Patton snr is screwed...

 

[MisterP]

oddly just read about an 1835 panic in Mississippi that a bandit chief was about to read an uprising of slaves and criminals, leading to 20 Black and 10 White Southerners lynched: this'll be occurring by the hundreds at the hands of Home Guard and Redshirts, and the trained soldiers will be less than enthusiastic about that

 

[Drizzt]

I see we've reached full "autumn of 1918 in the German trenches."

Expect without getting some grain shipments from the Ukraine and Romania and without their fishing fleets still being able to operate.