Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)

[1962strat]

Heinrich kinda did the least he could get away with, I think. He was forced by internal politics to do something. Bavaria’s position in Germany was still somewhat shaky at this point, and them feeling that Germany didn’t have their back could lead to questioning why they are in Germany in the first place.

OTOH, Germany going to war for Bavaria could have the opposite effect.

Dankl concurred and urged Ferdinand to mobilize the entire Common Army while leaving the Honved and Heimwehr in reserve for the time being;

I don’t think Austria will be very effective until they mobilize completely. Aside from being less than half the divisions, the K.u.K. Army was known for being underfunded in favor of the Landwehr and Honved.

 

[Dunbar]

Uhm why would Britain defend Belgium when it’s prince caused all this clusterfuck, especially it mobilized first and look like an aggressor?

Did French cabinet threw rationality out of the window?

Isn't it obvious, the civilized nations of Europe will obviously rally to prevent the spread of teutonic barbarism

 

[ElfNoble]

The French decision is bafflingly stupid like they thought Germany would attack over a court case and by Belgium mobilizing they clearly aren’t neutral and can’t be protected by Britain are they stupid

 

[Mayukh]

The French decision is bafflingly stupid like they thought Germany would attack over a court case and by Belgium mobilizing they clearly aren’t neutral and can’t be protected by Britain are they stupid

They thought they needed the war NOW!
Kinda like Germany and Russia dynamic iotl.

 

[KingSweden24]

It wasnt an Austrian affair to get involved.
Stupid decision.

Yes

Did Franz Ferdinand really think that Germany ordered the hit and thats the moment of casus belli?
If not what the time that French Assistances counts most?

Fog of war, etc

This is where I, for at least the twelfth time, wish that Nappy IV was still running the show in France. In fairness to V, in a constitutional monarchy once the cabinet declares war there isn't much the Emperor can do without badly destabilizing the country.

Exactly. And, in fairness to our little pigeon, he did what he could within the confines of his constitutional system to try to encourage his government to back down or at least really think it over, in the only way he knows how (saying “pray on it” lol)

Uhm why would Britain defend Belgium when it’s prince caused all this clusterfuck, especially it mobilized first and look like an aggressor?

Did French cabinet threw rationality out of the window?

Yes

Isn't the French navy much stronger than the IJN?

Yes, but - the MI is all over the world, trying to cover three major seas (at least). The IJN only has to cover one.

Heinrich kinda did the least he could get away with, I think. He was forced by internal politics to do something. Bavaria’s position in Germany was still somewhat shaky at this point, and them feeling that Germany didn’t have their back could lead to questioning why they are in Germany in the first place.

OTOH, Germany going to war for Bavaria could have the opposite effect.

Well put

I don’t think Austria will be very effective until they mobilize completely. Aside from being less than half the divisions, the K.u.K. Army was known for being underfunded in favor of the Landwehr and Honved.

With the French investments and Iron Triangle this imbalance is not as bad as OTL, but you’re not wrong.

The French decision is bafflingly stupid like they thought Germany would attack over a court case and by Belgium mobilizing they clearly aren’t neutral and can’t be protected by Britain are they stupid

OTL’s July Crisis (which these first days of March mimic) would suggest… yes.

 

[Dragonboy]

Yes

Very much so

 

[Indiana Beach Crow]

Uhm why would Britain defend Belgium when it’s prince caused all this clusterfuck, especially it mobilized first and look like an aggressor?

The British government is technically obligated to defend Belgian neutrality due to the Treaty of London (1839 so pre-POD), but the British government's actual motivation is to ensure that no single Continental power controls the majority of the Channel coast facing it.

 

[Lemonfish]

The British government is technically obligated to defend Belgian neutrality due to the Treaty of London (1839 so pre-POD), but the British government's actual motivation is to ensure that no single Continental power controls the majority of the Channel coast facing it.

On the other hand, fall of second empire means that no immediate threat to British procession in Far East and Africa.
So I’m pretty sure they will just sit on the fence and see who came on top.

 

[Mayukh]

The British government is technically obligated to defend Belgian neutrality due to the Treaty of London (1839 so pre-POD), but the British government's actual motivation is to ensure that no single Continental power controls the majority of the Channel coast facing it.

Treaty of London Stipulates that Belgium be neutral and only then will Great Powers defend it.
Belgium forfeited its neutrality they the moment it allied with French.
Also the German Naval lobby is less powerfull.

 

[ElfNoble]

Honestly I am curious to how the non Prussian German states are faring (the important ones anyway) like Saxony and how angry the Bavarian street is

 

[Ind89]

Well, it’s finally happening…

Spoiler

Go, Germany and Italy!