First, for the sake of predictability, we're going to cast a net over the randomness of the butterfly effect for the first 1 2/3 centuries.
Commodore Perry's expedition to Japan is 3 years earlier than it was irl, the beginning of Japan's rapid industrialization, the Meiji restoration etc, are all also hastened by 3 years. (ik this next part isn't the most likely outcome, but it's the goal of my TL) because this is 3 years earlier, then Japan is more conservative, so some policies from the tokugawa shogunate, that would have slowed down industrialization remain. Then in the 1860s-early 1880s, Japan purchases moderately less battleships than it did irl, then, the money they saved buying less battleships, is spent on buying more in the mid & late 1880s, than it did irl, then Japan starts the first Sino-Japanese war in 1890 (without the assassination of Kim Ok-gyun, Japan can just blame something on China, like when they blew up a part of that railroad or tried to and blamed it on China, or how the US blamed maine on Spain) instead of 1894. In 1890, Japan is only as industrialized as it was in 1892, not 1893, the policies that I spoke about cause Japan to industrialize more slowly to the extent that Japan is only 2 year ahead in terms of industry, despite starting industrializing 3 years earlier.
The previous are things I'm not willing to change for the TL I want to make (except, I'm willing to make Perry's expedition 2 years earlier, and Japan is 1 yeara ahead in terms of industrialization in 1891 compared to what it was IOTL and that's when the first sino-japanese war starts in the timeline) , however I want to make what happens next to be as realistic of a result of the above as possible, so if I'm wrong about any of the results please let me know.
Due to China recovering less from the Sino-French war & the Taiping rebellion & Japan still having a more up-to-date NAVY than China, Japan still has a decisive victory, However, due to the Japanese navy not having the same cohesion and effectiveness it had in the first sino-Japanese war in our timeline, and Japan industrialized more in those 4 years than China, the war is more evenly-matched, so Japan loses more soldiers, also, because this war (although dragging on a bit longer) still ends before the Russo-French alliance was as bona fide as it was IOTL, France probably doesn't join the triple intervention. But due to the war being more evenly matched and dragging on longer, China recovers more & faster than OTL, reducing it's likelihood of becoming communist, and Russia & Germany can stop the Japanese with roughly the same amount of ease as they did IOTL, even without France. Maybe Russia will stop Japan alone. Since the sino-japanese war was a big reason for the Boxer rebellion, it's hastened as well, but as we know, the rebels blamed natural disasters on the missionaries, so, in TTL, they scapegoat the The 1897 Yellow River flood on the missionaries, then start the rebellion in 1897. This means the Yihetuan rebellion is also hastened by 2 years, which means the Russo-Japanese war is hastened by 2 years (I mean, I don't think this relies on the trans-siberian railway being completed first, just it's southern branch, the Chinese Eastern Railway). This would make Russia more powerful in the 1910s, as after the Russo-Japanese war, the Russians began integrating more modern millitary drills in it's army, and prioritizing heavy industry.
What likely happens next?
Commodore Perry's expedition to Japan is 3 years earlier than it was irl, the beginning of Japan's rapid industrialization, the Meiji restoration etc, are all also hastened by 3 years. (ik this next part isn't the most likely outcome, but it's the goal of my TL) because this is 3 years earlier, then Japan is more conservative, so some policies from the tokugawa shogunate, that would have slowed down industrialization remain. Then in the 1860s-early 1880s, Japan purchases moderately less battleships than it did irl, then, the money they saved buying less battleships, is spent on buying more in the mid & late 1880s, than it did irl, then Japan starts the first Sino-Japanese war in 1890 (without the assassination of Kim Ok-gyun, Japan can just blame something on China, like when they blew up a part of that railroad or tried to and blamed it on China, or how the US blamed maine on Spain) instead of 1894. In 1890, Japan is only as industrialized as it was in 1892, not 1893, the policies that I spoke about cause Japan to industrialize more slowly to the extent that Japan is only 2 year ahead in terms of industry, despite starting industrializing 3 years earlier.
The previous are things I'm not willing to change for the TL I want to make (except, I'm willing to make Perry's expedition 2 years earlier, and Japan is 1 yeara ahead in terms of industrialization in 1891 compared to what it was IOTL and that's when the first sino-japanese war starts in the timeline) , however I want to make what happens next to be as realistic of a result of the above as possible, so if I'm wrong about any of the results please let me know.
Due to China recovering less from the Sino-French war & the Taiping rebellion & Japan still having a more up-to-date NAVY than China, Japan still has a decisive victory, However, due to the Japanese navy not having the same cohesion and effectiveness it had in the first sino-Japanese war in our timeline, and Japan industrialized more in those 4 years than China, the war is more evenly-matched, so Japan loses more soldiers, also, because this war (although dragging on a bit longer) still ends before the Russo-French alliance was as bona fide as it was IOTL, France probably doesn't join the triple intervention. But due to the war being more evenly matched and dragging on longer, China recovers more & faster than OTL, reducing it's likelihood of becoming communist, and Russia & Germany can stop the Japanese with roughly the same amount of ease as they did IOTL, even without France. Maybe Russia will stop Japan alone. Since the sino-japanese war was a big reason for the Boxer rebellion, it's hastened as well, but as we know, the rebels blamed natural disasters on the missionaries, so, in TTL, they scapegoat the The 1897 Yellow River flood on the missionaries, then start the rebellion in 1897. This means the Yihetuan rebellion is also hastened by 2 years, which means the Russo-Japanese war is hastened by 2 years (I mean, I don't think this relies on the trans-siberian railway being completed first, just it's southern branch, the Chinese Eastern Railway). This would make Russia more powerful in the 1910s, as after the Russo-Japanese war, the Russians began integrating more modern millitary drills in it's army, and prioritizing heavy industry.
What likely happens next?
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