This sounds like we'd get a confrontation between Greece and Turkey over Cyprus post WWII which doesn't bode well for Turkey in the long term.
Just a lieutenant and a 20 year old girl escaped to Turkey.
Considering that the Jews and Cypriots are fighting in the Balkans together I'd think they'd have good relations in the post war period which will be good for both countries.
Countries? Neither of the two is a country at the moment...
Guess the question is who gets to run Bulgaria then after the war. Probably some sort of Agrarian-Broad Socialist coalition but we never know.
One would note that the Bulgarian Communist party was one of the strongest in Europe. In 1923 it got over 19% for example, in 1939 it got over 8 while technically... not participating in the elections and under a royal dictatorship.
Unless something changes dramatically, the Bulgarian and Turkish air forces are heading for extinction in the next 3-6 months.
My prediction; Bulgaria will capitulate/switch sides until March-April 1944 and Turkey a bit later (unless they are really smart).
Both air forces are dying as we speak... but then the same is the case for Axis air forces in general by this point.
If Bulgaria capitulates soon the that opens up Romania, Hungary and the entire Balkans to the Allied armies - and no matter what the percentages agreement may have implied, once western soldiers are there the Red Army will find it impossible to set up Communist dictatorships.
One would note that if the Western Allies can see the writing in the wall so can the Germans. Germany has every reason to want to keep Ploesti in its hands even if the USAAF is blowing it up to bits from Greek airstrips at the moment...
Yeah,it was in 100-138 I don't know the specific chapter.
Part 45, December 1937 to be exact.
Iotl, the monarchy was, technically illegally, dissolved by a soviet 'referendum' by a very convincing 95% in favor of a 'republic'. If it's American and Greek armies on the ground in Sofia, rather than the red army, would the western allies actually care? Tsar Boris, one of the key people that brought Bulgaria into the war, is dead already-killed in spectacular fashion by the Greek resistance themselves. If the western allies actually put it to a legitimate referendum, or accept a conditional surrender, I could see the monarchy scraping by.
Perhaps, perhaps not. There is likely a broad coalition not particularly happy with the throne. Agrarians, social democrats, communists...
They also never technically declared war on the soviets, so napkin aside Stalin wouldn't exactly have much room to complain.
The comrade general secretary has his own means to influence things around the globe...
It is not just that they won't find "empty land" to form cohesive communities. It is the kind of land they got in OTL. They settled in some of the richest regions of Anatolia, the ones that were producing the majority of the exports. The Rumelian Muslims got to tap much of the country's wealth through acummulating capital. I guess that after a point, compounding the hard currency inflows translated into political power.
"Won't find empty land" is something of an exaggeration. Yes Turkey failed to regain East Thrace and Ionia TTL. This still means that at the time of the peace treaty held territory that in 1914 had a combined Greek and Armenian population of about 2.5 million...
It is a bit complicated. In general most choice land went not to refugees but party stalwarts (irrespective of origin i.e Sabanci started in Ankara). That said there was enough land ,and the expulsion of Greeks permitted essentially land reform. So you got small land holders who had to be managed by more mass politics means, vs the East were massive land holdings made landlords the main political agent (thus patron-client relations).
It certainly did not hurt that they exchange of populations post Lausanne was heavily tilted in the Turkish favor. The Turkish government inherited the land holdings of about 4 million people while having the settle fewer than half a million. So it could do everything at once. TTL even with a lot more refugees and quite a bit less former Christian land, it still likely has more land than people but nowhere near OTL. Besides I'd expect defeat affects legitimacy which the cynic in me would expect to mean that local elites need to be kept bought.
Thus I expect Turkish politics to be dominated by land issues. In a way the regimes will have an incentive to break apart the muhajir populations so as to dilute their potential political power. But sooner or later, the anatolian peasant masses will also lodge their demands (just like Russian peasant masses did, and indeed just as French peasants did. Many people do not know this, but land reform was the single most popular result of the French Revolution, even in regions that later rebelled against the Religious polices. And both classical liberal economists, conservatives reactionaries, and marxists attacked it as undermining capitalist development ).
How much this, or perhaps for how long, this would remain the primary concern with populations flocking into the cities and other sectors of the economy growing relative to agriculture post 1945 though? I'd guess at least a generation, after all in the early 1970s 70% of the population was still in agriculture accounting for a third of GDP and 90% of exports.
Knowing what the Soviets will do to Turkey, I highly doubt it. Probably a bunch of centrist political parties instead.
Yes? What the Soviets will do to Turkey?
Indeed the historical role of the Ottoman General Staff in 1918-1921 probably will be used as justification for its elimination. This is especially a demand Stergiadis could make due to his and Venizelos, OTL accusations that the Allies permitted the Ottoman General Staff too much freedom in 1918-1920.
Stergiadis would most likely make the attempt, but it would obviously be affected by the Turkish endgame here. One would also note that Stergiadis may be the well respected elder statesman here but elder is also literally true here, he's turning 83 in 1944. Which probably has to something to do with some of the Greek party leaders agreeing to supporting a government under him...
