To an extent but at the same time the German's are now far past their peak numbers (the losses before Moscow are in no way compensated for by the lack of any need for the Africa Korps to be reinforced) and for ideological reasons the war in the East will always be the "main show" and that reasoning is now being joined by sheer necessity as the tide starts to turn (which really can't be avoided-even without over extending themselves toward Stalingrad Soviet numbers, lend lease and the ramping up the Union's own industry means they're rapidly running out of time). As such beyond the fixed defenses (which probably can't be built up further than they have been in the time available) you probably won't see much change in France even if they can see it coming. Much as OTL its going to look like the Allies are having success against Italian's and the Japanese which will lead to the usual "until they face the Master race," argument from the higher ups in the Nazi party which Hitler (given his own bias) will naturally be listening to over the professionals. Especially as by the time it comes (as OTL) many in the Heer will have realized that while getting beat up by the WAllies won't be pleasant the Soviet's are alto more angry (the war in the West having been "clean" and with little direct conflict in almost three years) and while a strong effort should be made keeping troops interested in massacre and rape away from the Reich should be the priority. As such keep Hitler focused on the East and slowly let the West in, in the (vain) hope they'll protect the German's from Soviet wrath in the name of "anti-communism.
Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
- Start date
Unless some heretofore unkown elite Italian unit pulls off a miracle or old Poseidon decides he's not fond of the British today all of a sudden, I can't see this attack failing. The Italians still need to hold down mainland Greece and their Balkan gains at this point, I think? If they had the manpower to spare to turn Rhodes into a fortress beyond the ability of this combined force to break, they should not have the counterintelligence capability to do so unnoticed by a hostile occupied populace.
And that would require enough Naval resources to upkeep and supply such a force.
The RN would love either Axis navy to try that, shore bombardment gets boring after a while.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
So the British have carried out their first major amphibious assault of the war, and there can be no doubt that it will eventually be successful. While there can be no doubt that numerous mistakes will be made, they will be seen as learning opportunities, and will only add to the portfolio of knowledge that Combined Operations are building up. Both in major and minor operations, so that by the time the resources to conduct an invasion to liberate France, the wealth of experience and the development of equipment available will ensure that operation is a greater success than it was IOTL. There is only one major component missing from this operation, the lack of an airborne component, which hasn’t as yet been developed sufficiently to be included. The basic problem is that the British don’t have the aircraft as yet to conduct airborne operations, and until they receive a significant number of transport aircraft from the Americans, will not be able to conduct large scale airborne operations. This present amphibious operation will in addition to its immediate results, have short and long term effects.
In the immediate short term, not only has it demonstrated the ability of the British to conduct a major amphibious operation, but it has also rendered the entire Eastern Mediterranean a British controlled area. And has ensured that neither the Germans or Italians can make use of the Dardanelles as a route for their merchant shipping, even if it not carrying a military cargo. The Italian Fascist government, has suffered a significant blow, not only have they lost their colonies in East and North Africa, their overseas territories are being to be removed one by one. Benito’s hold on power is becoming increasingly fragile, as more and more of the Grand Council are beginning to wonder if they have backed the wrong horse. And whether it might be better to appoint a different leader and seek some sort of accommodation with the Allies, before ether the British or Germans invade and take over. The French in the Lavant are now in a no win situation, they either jump ship and join the Free French side or very soon the British are coming over the border, and instigating regime change. Best to switch sides now and get the best deal that they can, waiting much longer is going to be very costly.
While those Turks who said remember what Ataturk said, “stick with the British,” are going to be saying to their fellows, “ see what we told you.” Turkey is very unlikely to give up its neutrality yet, but it will be more inclined to favour the British in future, and once the French in the Lavant switch sides, and they have the British on their Southern border with the British and Soviets on their Eastern border. They are going to be far more receptive to the Anglo Soviet position as apposed to the German. And once the British start a bombing campaign against the Rumanian oilfields, bombers that are not able to return to Crete or Rhodes, should be able to divert to Turkey, and while the aircraft are interned, the crews should be able once they have escaped their interment camp, easily make their way to allied territory. The Vichy French in North Africa, now have an additional fear, not only can the British cross the Eastern border, but they can carry out a divisional landing behind the border at the same time. They too will realise that they don’t have much time before the British decide that enough is enough, and rather than continue to negotiate, it is far easier to just invade. The remaining French colonies in Africa will themselves decide that switching sides is their only option, and I would expect that by the autumn of 1942, all of them will have declared for de Gaulle, as given the British success to date. The other option of sticking with Vichy is going to see at best being totally isolated and forced to rely on their own resources, at worst a British invasion.
The only other player in the region Spain has now to make some very serious decisions, as it is reliant on the British and Americans, to feed its population, and for the majority of the fuel needed to keep the lights on. Spain had a very limited domestic coal supply, and the resent civil war had seriously affected the production. Spain which was one of the most underdeveloped nations in Europe, having only recently experienced a devastating civil war, was in a very bad way. Should the Anglo Americans decide to only supply food and fuel on a cash basis, even by switching its entire mineral production over to the allies, which would cause problems with the Germans. There is a good chance that with limited support from the allies the civil war could reignite, and Franco find himself on the losing side. Franco has to walk a tight rope, and is going to come under increasing pressure to show more favour to the allies. Such as doing nothing to impede the transit of refugees, spies and evaders through the Pyrenees , and reducing the activities of German intelligence agencies in Spain. The successful invasion of Rhodes, is going to have a significant effect on the region both during the war and post war.
RR.
In the immediate short term, not only has it demonstrated the ability of the British to conduct a major amphibious operation, but it has also rendered the entire Eastern Mediterranean a British controlled area. And has ensured that neither the Germans or Italians can make use of the Dardanelles as a route for their merchant shipping, even if it not carrying a military cargo. The Italian Fascist government, has suffered a significant blow, not only have they lost their colonies in East and North Africa, their overseas territories are being to be removed one by one. Benito’s hold on power is becoming increasingly fragile, as more and more of the Grand Council are beginning to wonder if they have backed the wrong horse. And whether it might be better to appoint a different leader and seek some sort of accommodation with the Allies, before ether the British or Germans invade and take over. The French in the Lavant are now in a no win situation, they either jump ship and join the Free French side or very soon the British are coming over the border, and instigating regime change. Best to switch sides now and get the best deal that they can, waiting much longer is going to be very costly.
While those Turks who said remember what Ataturk said, “stick with the British,” are going to be saying to their fellows, “ see what we told you.” Turkey is very unlikely to give up its neutrality yet, but it will be more inclined to favour the British in future, and once the French in the Lavant switch sides, and they have the British on their Southern border with the British and Soviets on their Eastern border. They are going to be far more receptive to the Anglo Soviet position as apposed to the German. And once the British start a bombing campaign against the Rumanian oilfields, bombers that are not able to return to Crete or Rhodes, should be able to divert to Turkey, and while the aircraft are interned, the crews should be able once they have escaped their interment camp, easily make their way to allied territory. The Vichy French in North Africa, now have an additional fear, not only can the British cross the Eastern border, but they can carry out a divisional landing behind the border at the same time. They too will realise that they don’t have much time before the British decide that enough is enough, and rather than continue to negotiate, it is far easier to just invade. The remaining French colonies in Africa will themselves decide that switching sides is their only option, and I would expect that by the autumn of 1942, all of them will have declared for de Gaulle, as given the British success to date. The other option of sticking with Vichy is going to see at best being totally isolated and forced to rely on their own resources, at worst a British invasion.
The only other player in the region Spain has now to make some very serious decisions, as it is reliant on the British and Americans, to feed its population, and for the majority of the fuel needed to keep the lights on. Spain had a very limited domestic coal supply, and the resent civil war had seriously affected the production. Spain which was one of the most underdeveloped nations in Europe, having only recently experienced a devastating civil war, was in a very bad way. Should the Anglo Americans decide to only supply food and fuel on a cash basis, even by switching its entire mineral production over to the allies, which would cause problems with the Germans. There is a good chance that with limited support from the allies the civil war could reignite, and Franco find himself on the losing side. Franco has to walk a tight rope, and is going to come under increasing pressure to show more favour to the allies. Such as doing nothing to impede the transit of refugees, spies and evaders through the Pyrenees , and reducing the activities of German intelligence agencies in Spain. The successful invasion of Rhodes, is going to have a significant effect on the region both during the war and post war.
RR.
Historically there was a regular stream of Italian merchant shipping moving towards the Black Sea in the 1941-1943 timeline. This shipping, once it reached the black sea was employed with the Black Sea helping relieve the struggling logistics of Army Group South.
With Rhodes in allied hands so much earlier adding additional Italian shipping to the Black Sea may be considered more dangerous.
With Rhodes in allied hands so much earlier adding additional Italian shipping to the Black Sea may be considered more dangerous.
Especially as the Turk's may enforce their neutrality and completely close the passage if the Allies can not only bribe them but also prove they can provide protection if the Germans in Greece try to take Istanbul and open the Straits by force.
Beaufighter raids against Italian shipping, combined with 'Gardening' missions by Wellingtons and by Abdiel-class and Grampus-class mine-layers, should put a real crimp in Axis supply lines via the Straits, enough that it could put a notable strain on Italy's ability to resupply her armies in the Soviet Union. This would mean re-routing those supplies via the rail, canal & riverine networks through the Balkans and Eastern Europe, networks that are already straining to supply the invasion forces, feed the Axis heartlands and occupied territories and Nazi extermination efforts. In addition to making raids on Ploesti easier, it also makes 'Gardening' of the Danube easier as well.
I suppose they might be able to pry some Wellington squadrons out of Bomber Commands' grasp, but they'll be able to hear Bomber Harris' screaming about it in Montreal.
What Turkey wanted in 1941 was metal ores and petroleum, so that their ample supplies of well educated engineers and managers, as part of manufacturing companies, could generate exportable products and earn foreign exchange. They particularly needed fuel oils for building heat, electricity generation and process heat, plus gasoline and diesel for transportation.
Germany had no particular surplus of any of the common metal ores. USA and Britain had plenty of those ores, mined at locations that could ship to Turkey via sea or train. Ores brought to the eastern coast of Africa for ship-loading, in particular, were closer to Turkey than to most other potential users.
Germany had an insufficiency of petroleum throughout the war, worsening as time went on. US and Britain had plenty of petroleum. Britain in particular controlled the well fields at Kirkuk in Iraq, which were connected by the first Middle Eastern pipeline...completed in 1934...from Kirkuk to a sizeable refinery on the Mediterranean coast at Haifa, Palestine (today: Israel). Britain could move refined products from that refinery by ship to Turkey at low cost. It also would be possible to move crude from the Kirkuk fields to eastern Turkey via road.
There of course were other important geopolitical considerations, but just from national economics, Turkey was strongly motivated to lean toward the Allies.
Germany had no particular surplus of any of the common metal ores. USA and Britain had plenty of those ores, mined at locations that could ship to Turkey via sea or train. Ores brought to the eastern coast of Africa for ship-loading, in particular, were closer to Turkey than to most other potential users.
Germany had an insufficiency of petroleum throughout the war, worsening as time went on. US and Britain had plenty of petroleum. Britain in particular controlled the well fields at Kirkuk in Iraq, which were connected by the first Middle Eastern pipeline...completed in 1934...from Kirkuk to a sizeable refinery on the Mediterranean coast at Haifa, Palestine (today: Israel). Britain could move refined products from that refinery by ship to Turkey at low cost. It also would be possible to move crude from the Kirkuk fields to eastern Turkey via road.
There of course were other important geopolitical considerations, but just from national economics, Turkey was strongly motivated to lean toward the Allies.
OTL they were out there from 1940, in the form of 37 and 38 squadrons, by early 1941 there were 4 squadrons in Egypt and some in Malta.
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So no problems with shipping to and from Turkey that involves getting anywhere close to Axis places if you wanted to.
Can also use it for comerce as well I mean taking the pressure off on one front could potentially free up some older kit to sell to the turks.
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If training, arms and intelligence are to be provided to the Greeks, then a key element of getting the Turks to lean Allied would be avoiding what the Turks would perceive to be favoritism toward the Greeks in that regard, by providing the Turks with comparable training, arms and intelligence.
Another key element of maintaining relationships with both nations would be utilizing the presence of Allied forces at the Cyprus bases to make clear to the Turkish and especially the Greek locals on Cyprus that they must get along, and any individuals that are perceived to be promoting separatism or division will be "discouraged".
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Turkey is off all the neutral nations the one that is in the worst position, trapped between three of the major combatants in the current conflict. To its north is its old protagonist and one that it had begun to rebuild its relations with Britain, it has frequently had conflicts with Russia now the Soviet Union, which is also now communist and opposed to the influence of Islam in its southern states. To the south and shortly to be on its southern border are the British, who also control Turkish access to the world through the Mediterranean and Suez Canal. Turkey had previously enjoyed good relations with Britain, but by joining the axis powers during the Great War, and its treatment of captured troops after the siege of Kut, had seriously deteriorated. Only the wise council of the first dictator Ataturk during the inter war years, had enabled it to repair its relations with Britain. While to the west was Germany who it had had reasonably relations with during the interwar. But had a group of allies all of whom had had difficult relationships with Turkey historically. Squeezed between these three Turkey had to tread a very difficult path, and could not afford to upset any of them at this stage of the conflict.
However all is not as it seems, as the wise heads in Ankara once they have examined the situation will soon work out. The Germans are involved in a life or death struggle in the Soviet Union and haven’t the troops and resources to spare for a campaign against the Turks. So as long as they don’t ally with the British or Soviets, they are not going to invade, or try to forcibly influence Turkish attitudes anytime soon. The Soviets are themselves rather preoccupied with their war against the Germans, and as long as the Turks remain neutral world rather not have to fight against them. Plus given that they are allied to the Anglo Americans, and rather reliant on them for a lot of resources, they don’t want to annoy them right now by attacking Turkey. The British supplying the Greeks with arms and training isn’t a problem, given the fighting that has occurred and will occur during a liberation of Greece. Greece is not going to be in any position to attack Turkey post war, and without British or American support, highly unlikely, maintain an offensive.
The problem is the British, not that they might invade once they have control over the French Lavant. While the British are in a much stronger position ITTL than they were IOTL, they don’t need an extra campaign at the moment, especially given the situation in the Far East. What will be a major concern for the Turks is the post war fate of Rhodes, do the British give it back to the Italians, or hand it over to the Greeks. Might they decide to incorporate Rhodes with Cypress into a larger British eastern Mediterranean colony. Or might they be persuaded to given its proximity to Turkey return it to what in many Turkish eyes is its rightful owners. And so I would expect that the majority of the wise heads in Ankara, will be concentrating on this question, and trying to fathom what the British intentions are, and what they can do to influence them. By the end of the year Turkey will begin to show it favours the allies, with serious reservations about the Soviets. And could if provided with the resources and in the event of a successful Greek invasion join the Allied cause.
RR.
However all is not as it seems, as the wise heads in Ankara once they have examined the situation will soon work out. The Germans are involved in a life or death struggle in the Soviet Union and haven’t the troops and resources to spare for a campaign against the Turks. So as long as they don’t ally with the British or Soviets, they are not going to invade, or try to forcibly influence Turkish attitudes anytime soon. The Soviets are themselves rather preoccupied with their war against the Germans, and as long as the Turks remain neutral world rather not have to fight against them. Plus given that they are allied to the Anglo Americans, and rather reliant on them for a lot of resources, they don’t want to annoy them right now by attacking Turkey. The British supplying the Greeks with arms and training isn’t a problem, given the fighting that has occurred and will occur during a liberation of Greece. Greece is not going to be in any position to attack Turkey post war, and without British or American support, highly unlikely, maintain an offensive.
The problem is the British, not that they might invade once they have control over the French Lavant. While the British are in a much stronger position ITTL than they were IOTL, they don’t need an extra campaign at the moment, especially given the situation in the Far East. What will be a major concern for the Turks is the post war fate of Rhodes, do the British give it back to the Italians, or hand it over to the Greeks. Might they decide to incorporate Rhodes with Cypress into a larger British eastern Mediterranean colony. Or might they be persuaded to given its proximity to Turkey return it to what in many Turkish eyes is its rightful owners. And so I would expect that the majority of the wise heads in Ankara, will be concentrating on this question, and trying to fathom what the British intentions are, and what they can do to influence them. By the end of the year Turkey will begin to show it favours the allies, with serious reservations about the Soviets. And could if provided with the resources and in the event of a successful Greek invasion join the Allied cause.
RR.