View attachment 866321
The New (Old) Order: The Last Days of Freedom
"You must either conquer and rule or serve and lose, suffer or triumph, be the anvil or the hammer" Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
The XXI century had started with the hope it would see the final triumph of liberalism, with all the world becoming one under a liberal order. In fact, it would see it's demise in most of it.
We are in 2045. 20 years ago, after Trump gor elected for his second term, he cut all military support for Ukraine, with most European countries following suit. By the end of the year, Ukraine saw itself on the negotiation table, having to sign out Crimea and the four oblasts claimed by Russia (except for west-bank Kherson).
The floodgates were open for authoritarians all around the world to feel emboldened and make their moves, while countries around the world run to ensure their safety on this new jungle.
-The United States has been since then under the continuous control of the Republican-American party, with them having throughly dismantled it's institutions with Project 2025. In some richer "blue" states, local authorities are still somewhat able to resist the central government, but the latter has been periodically curtailing states' right. The Republican-American administration has forbidden, outside of diplomatic staff and visits, to anyone who isn't a White Christian/Jew coming from Europe, the White Anglosphere, or South Africa/Zimbabwe to enter the country.
It has removed itself from international politics almost completely (NATO is now dead), even abandoning their associated states in Micronesia (
We shoudn't send Real Americans' hard earned money to some hula dancers!"), just worrying itself with keeping the Panama Canal and ensuring it's position in North America.
Panama has been forced, on the point of the gun, to give again the Canal Region to the Americans. These, meanwhile, have promised to leave Panamanian internal politics alone (it's in fact, by now, a more democratic country than the US) and to extend it's security umbrella to it and neighbouring Costa Rica (one of the world's last liberal democracies), in fact being now the only foreign countries the US has made such commitment, obviously not out of some high-minded ideal, but just to ensure the security, and above all, the American preponderance on the Canal (and give it some strategic depth, the reason Costa Rica was included).
Guatemala and El Salvador are now right-wing dictatorships (Bukele is still in power in the latter) loosely connected to the Americans. In Mexico, meanwhile, MORENA has consolidated a leftist authoritarian regime there that, on it's own, would have liked to join ALBA (more on it later), but the Americans have made clear that it joining any non-US centered organization would get a nuclear answer. So, Mexico is (by force) on the American sphere.
-Most of LATAM is now part of
ALBA, formed by authortiarian leftist regimes. Venezuela, Brazil, and Argentina are the de facto leaders of the bloc, all of them having nuclear weapons.
-Along the late 20's diverse far-right governments would get in power in Europe, of special note being Germany, in 2025, and France, in 2027. In 2029, a concert of Western European powers and Russia launched, in a meeting in Vienna, a "new security architecture" for Europe.
-Most of Western Europe is now part of the
League of Charlemagne, whose countries are now run by Orbán-style illiberal far-right goverments. Not only the League has estabilished the same travel bans as the US has, but has also determined that, to be able to be a citizen of one of their countries, at least seven of your great-grandparents have to be people that would have been allowed entry in the League. Obviously, this ended with milions of Europeans of XX/XXI c. migrant origin losing their citizenship and being "repatriated". Islam has also been criminalized in the League.
The League is de facto headed by Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, all of them with nuclear weapons. During the Vienna talks, Finland insisted to be able to have it's own nuclear weapons, what the Russians eventually allowed in exchange of something.
While not a part of the League, Switzerland, itself now with nuclear weapons, eagerly collaborates with it, and has voluntarily adopted the same travel and racial laws. The other microstates, overall still keeping somewhat liberal governments, have been strongarmed by the League to adopt at least the travel laws, so to not end being doors to "undesirables" to get into the continent.
They tried to impose these laws even on the Vatican, making the Papacy to abandon it in protest of the "blatantly un-Christian" coercion it was suffering. While the Vatican City still formally exists, having not been reclaimed by Italy, it's now a desert city, with the Papacy being now based in Santo Domingo.
-The Vienna talks gave the Russians carte blanche in former communist Europe and overall former USSR, along the overall Orthodox world. The Russians then forcibly annexed what remaned of Ukraine, along with Belarus, Moldova, the Baltic states, and Kazakhstan in the Eastern War, that saw Russia, together with Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Macedonia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, fighting against Poland, the Baltics, Czechia, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania, and Greece. The war would see the nuclear bombings of Kyiv, Kharkhiv, Lviv, Warsaw, Poznan, Gdansk, Krakow, Brno, and Prague (the Old City is no more).
Russia is now the unambiguous leader of the
Eurasian Union, covering most of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. It's the only nuclar state of the group (the Hungarians did asked permission to have their own nukes, as a reward for their long loyalty towards Russia, and got a harsh no).
The Union doesn't adopt the League's travel and racial laws as it's policy, but most of it's European members outside Russia (Albania being the obvious exception) have adopted them.
Serbia has had to give the Hungarian-majority area of Vojvodina to Hungary, a decision Russia took due to considering Hungary to having been more loyal during the first Ukrainian war, but still could realize most of it's irredentist claims. Bosnia and Kosovo got ethnically cleansed, with the Croats in Bosnia going to Croatia, and the Bosniaks and Kosovo Albanians being expelled to Turkey (Kosovo Albanians weren't allowed to go to Albania to avoid strenghtening a country seen as fundamentally untrustworthy to the Union.
In exchange for allowing Finland to have it's own nuclear arsenal, it had to give Aaland to Russia. Formally it's now an independent country, the Aaland Republic, member of the union. In practice, most of the population left to either Sweden or Finland, and it is, in fact, a Russian naval base passing as a country.
-Between the League and the Union, we have Poland, Czechia, and Slovenia, the so called
Neutral Countries. These, that suffered brutal devastation during the Eastern War, are de facto condominiums of the two blocs. Their militaries have been reduced to a glorified police force (being categorically forbidden to expand them), and the League's travel and racial laws have been inposed into them. None of the blocs can keep their own militaries on them during peacetime, so to serve as a buffer.
The Neutral Countries internal politics are, ironically still freer than those of both League and Union countries, but are heavily managed by both blocs, to bloc "unharmonious" policies and politicians. A politician that refuses to collaborate will get a visit from a nice fellow from the Stasi/FSB.
-
Turkey, that has now it's own nuclear weapons, joined the Eastern War, together with Azerbaijan, just to be able to pull a landgrab (in Thrace and Syunik, respectivelly), but these countries showed no interest in joining the Union (neither were the Russians eager to have a second major power into it). They and the Azeris have been sending expelled Bosniaks and Kosovo Albanians, plus "repatriated" WEuropean Turks, to colonize Kurdistan and Syunik.
-Most of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula is now part of the
Alliance of Jerusalem, headed by it's two nuclear-armed states, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Israel has effectively concluded the Smotrich plan, with most Palestinians having been squeezed out of it (generally going to the Gulf States) with the remaining ones being non-citizens under a toothless PA, that "governs" some plots of land here and there.
A pro-Palestinian uprising in Jordan was brutally suppressed by the Alliance, with most Palestinian-descended people in Jordan being forced to leave the country (most of them ended going to Syria, Iraq, or Algeria.
-A nuclear-armed Iran now heads the
Axis of Resistence. The Palestinians expelled from Jordan have been sent to colonize the Syrian and Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Yemen War was eventually ended with the repartition of the country, with the Republic of Aden and Hadhramaut joining the Alliance, and the (Houthi dominated) Yemen proper joining the Axis.
Lebanon eventually imploded into another internal conflict. With the Alliance distracted by Jordan, and a fully Axis-supprted Hezbollah being easily the major armed faction there, the later completely took over the country. Most of the Sunnis and Maronites have fled the country, the first going overall to Alliance countries, while the later went mostly to Canada or, especially, Australia.
-Most of Africa is now under the
New African Union, headed by it's two nuclear members, South Africa and Algeria.
A coalition between hardline ANC members and EFF has instituted a leftist regime in South Africa, that with violent landgrabs and de facto discrimination, has led most of the White population of the country to leave it. Most of them went to Canada or Australia, but, unlike most other refugees around the world, those who desired got a red carpet welcome in the US or Europe, due to being very white and Christian.
Botswana refused to join the New Union, but got strongarmed into at least following it's line by the South Africans.
A constant source of tension between the New Union and the Alliance is Western Sahara, with the former recognizing it to this day, while the later supports Morocco.
-Britain now heads the
Atlantic Commonwealth, considered the main remanant of the Old World Blues, being the only supranational organization whose all of it's members, and, more importantly, their leaders, are still overall liberal democracies. Beyond Britain, the Netherlands, Canada, and Guyana have their own nuclear arsenal (Britain outright gave nukes and associated technology to the Guyanese to ensure their safety on the deeply hostile neighbourhood of South America). There are also nukes based on the Falklands, under control of the local government.
Partly due to some remaining idealism, partly to give it more strategic depth, the Commonwealth has accepted, beyond the already quoted Netherlands, other democracies in the Atlantic basin that never were part of the original Empire, as with Iceland, the Dominican Republic (were the Pope is now), Suriname, Cabo Verde, São Tomé and Principe, and Liberia.
After Denmark went fash, Greenland and the Faroe Islands declared their independence, joining the Commonwealth.
The Commonwealth and the New African Union had a showdown on the African countries desiring to join the former. The later threatened war if they refused to, if not to join the union, then to at least to follow their line, as they have done with Botswana. The Commonwealth made it clear that they would be willing to go to war, nuclear if needed, for the sake of these countries, and the New Union backed down. So impressive was the showing, that Sierra Leone restored the Windsor monarchy.
While Ireland hasn't formally joined the Commonwealth (the idea of joining a British-led organization being politically toxic), it mantains very close relations with it, and, many times, the Commonwealth leadership has reiterated that a threat to Ireland will be treated as a threat to the Commonwealth.
The Commonwealth firmly rejects the travel and racial laws that have got in vogue around the developed West, still accepting the best and brightest from all around the world. The catch is that you
must be among the best and brightest to get into. With a massive number of immigration requests, to be able to be accepted to immigrate to a Commonwealth country is an extremely competitive endeavour, one that even many White Americans and Europeans have gotten into, and you'll be unceremoniously rejected if you don't make the cut. This hasn't stopped Americans trying to to sail to the Bahamas or cross the Canadian border, or Europeans trying to cross the Channel. An exception to this draconian measures was the Commonwealth opening it's doors to the Maronite exodus, due to the fact that, with most of the other Christian countries being ruled either by racialists or by authoritarian socialists, they would have nowhere else to go where they could be reasonably safe.
Chile mantains a close cooperation with the Commonwealth, but it hasn't been accepted into it, mostly because the latter sees defending it as stretching them too much, but also in part because it's government has became quite unpalatable: Surrounded by ALBA countries, and after they managed to promote an insurrection that brought down the Paraguayan government, putting in power one aligned with the bloc, with afterwards ALBA trying to do the same in Chile, the given country has became quite authoritarian and militaristic, to supress "seditious" activities, it's borders have became a fortress, to keep away both ALBA armies and immigrants, and it has built the second largest nuclear arsenal in the Americas, only behind the American one.
-A large part of Asia is now covered by the China-headed
Asian Cooperative Initiative. Beyond China, Pakistan and North Korea also have nuclear weapons there.
During the Vienna talks, taking afvantage of the crumbling security structure worldwide, China launched an invasion on Taiwan, that ended annexing the island.
The Chinese regime has been very busy helping the Thai and Burmese juntas to repress local insurgencies.
Malaysia is now a PAS-ruled theocracy, not formally part of the Cooperative but closely working with it. The Indo-Malaysians have fled to India, while the Sino-Malaysians have fled to India, Indonesia, Japan or (the very lucky ones) to Canada, Australia, or New Zealand. Sarawak and Sabah have declared independence.
-The remaining of the Indo-Pacific, in opposition to China, has organized itself into the
Indo-Pacific Treaty. Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, Vietnam and the Philippines are its nuclear powers (the later two insisted in having their own arsenals, not trusting they wouldn't just be abandoned by the rest of the organization as "just some poor countries").
Australia and Japan are, overall, liberal democracies, with the former following the non-racialist but still very harsh commonwealth immigration model (with an exception being opened to the Maronite exodus). Japan, meanwhile, has been, in fact, opening it's immigration quite a bit, due to it's demographic problems. Beyond receiving a massive number of Taiwanese, Sino-Malaysian, and Hong Konger refugees, there are now considerable Philippine and Vietnamese communities there, and almost all of the Japanese-Brazilian community has also immigrated there, fleeing the ALBA regime in their country.
South Korea is now again a military regime, that got into power to curb people unpleased with the increased SKorean collaboration with Japan, fearing they might end being a Chinese NKorean fifth column.
In the Philippines, the Marcos family has used the tense secutiry situation to, once again, entrench itself into power.
India is now a Hindu Supremacist regime, with most of it's Muslims having fled to Pakistan or Bangladesh (the most fortunate ones went to the Gulf).
Somalia and Kenya are associated with the Treaty, with some possibility of eventually being admitted.
After France went fash, Wallis and Futuna and French Polynesia promptly declared independence, being quickly recognized and admitted by the Treaty. Kanak leaderships in New Caledonia tried to do the same, resulting in an ethnic conflict that ended with the ethnic cleansing of the Kanak population. Most of it fled to Papua New Guinea.
-Countries completely outside blocs:
.Haiti: Now a completely failed state, with a president that only governs the palace while the rest of the country is taken by gangs. The Dominican Republic has built a wall separating them.
.Indonesia and Bangladesh: Nuclear armed states wanting to play both sides. Indonesia has been a dictatorship under Prabowo for two decades by now.
.Oman, Brunei, Singaopore and Mongolia: Just hoping no one remembers them.
.New Zealand: Also with a nuclear arsenal, proclaims itself neutral. Follows the Commonwealth model of immigration
-Recapitulating Nuclear states:
.Americas: Canada, The US, Venezuela, Guyana, Brazil Argentina, and Chile
.Europe: Spain, France, Britain, The Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Finland, and Russia
.Africa: Algeria and South Africa
.Middle East: Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran
.Asia-Pacific: Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand
-Relations between blocs:
.As said at the start, the Americans are now staunchly isolationist, only caring about their position in North America.
.The League of Charlemagne is also strongly isolationist, albeit with close economic relationships with the Eurasian Union and some military collaboration with them.
.It's possible to discern two major alliances :ALBA - Eurasian Union - Axis of Resistence - Asian Cooperative Initiative vs Alliance of Jerusalem- Turkey - Indo-Pacific Treaty.
.The Atlantic Commonwealth nurtures some sympathy towards the Indo-Pacific Treaty, and they have some noteworth economic collaboration and even military, to some degree, but neither has the stomach to get involved on tensions on the other side of the world.
