WI: Empty Lands

Fraxinensis

Hello everyone, this is my first post. I hope that there is no rule or tradition against starting a new thread as one's first post: if there is I apologize. However, I think I do have a rather interesting hypothetical.

Suppose the group of Asian hunters who crossed the Berring Land Bridge either never made it or failed to establish lasting human population there. If all Native Americans are descended from them, then we are faced with two large, empty continents until some more established powers find them. Conversely, if we buy in to the Solutrean hypothesis or one of the Pacific models, we would have a different group of people settling the New World. As far as I can see it, I imagine one of three things would happen:

A. Pacific islanders did settle in the Americas. When Europeans arrive in the 15th century, they find strange, strange-looking (to them) natives. Thus, things go mostly as they do in OTL.

B. The lands are completely empty. Ice-age megafauna may still exist, even in extremely large numbers. I suspect the nations of Europe would settle in to this land quite comfortably: without the need to subdue natives, free land and resources might be quite a draw to Europeans. American society would likely develope on a "closer to Europe" line: though in OTL colonists sometimes mingled with the Indians (resulting in nations like modern-day Mexico) and other times did not, but nonetheless saw them as a kind of example of a different society (modern-day America). Without their example, the Americas might seem more like a new part of Europe than a New World.

C. Europeans arrive and meet...Europeans. Personally, I don't think Solutrean "natives" would be treated much better than the natives in OTL: they would still be pagans, still speak a strange language, and still be in the way. However, after they are mostly wiped out by disease, they might be more able to integrate in to European culture: convert, learn English, Spanish, Portugues, Dutch, etc., and you're just another white person. Of course, they might still be seen as low class, but they would probably not be the object of a campaign to kill them off.

Other than that, I can perhaps see a larger population in eastern Asia, due to the descendents of the hunters who did not leave. However, I expect that the Native Americans are descended from a sufficiently small group that there is not likely to be much effect. If there were, I suppose either pressure on Europe from the East results in quicker discovery of the New World, or pressure in the East results in settlement of more and more Pacific islands, perhaps culminating in discovery of the New World from the other side (and subsequent Asian colonization). However, if the population that left Asian is small enough, I suspect that them remaining in Asia could eliminate the human settlement of North America without having a large effect on the rest of the world.

If anyone has any thoughts, I'd love to hear them.
 

Blue Max

Well, since the Pacific Islanders got to Hawaii, they probably could go one more step to the Western American Coastline--eventually. This is a large trek by sea for a people without advanced technology, so it might not happen.

You've got the Vikings who probably found a great fishing spot to hang out at--they might build a permanent colony as a result. On the other side of the ocean, Zheng He would discover the American West Coast, but the Chinese would probably avoid doing anything with it.

Columbus might show up on schedule, but he isn't going to return with gold or slaves--perhaps he returns with odd fauna? He probably would miss the Viking communities in North America and the small Pacific Islander populations on the Californian coast.

Could the odd fauna start a colonization race? I think it would wait until the "Surplus Population" problem of the 1600s in Europe--even then, it would be a somewhat belated effort, like Australia. Also, the descendants of the Vikings and Pacific Islanders could be very numerous by this point, they'd have four centuries to build their numbers and explore. While both might be outteched by the next wave, it would not be a big walkover like OTL.

I figure that colonization of the Huge Americas Landmass, even with small populations on the scene in 1000 AD as forerunners, would take at least two full centuries--so into the 1800s. You could get a wacky situation of Japan and Russia claiming large portions of the Western Seaboard, and Various European States and the Vikings claiming the Eastern parts. The United States might form from an international bloc of colonies with a common interest in standing apart from the colonizers--if this is the case, the American rebellions would be beginning in the mid 1800s and end in the early 20th century.

Now you've got a really, really diverse melting pot with people from all over Europe and probably also some Japanese (who found a good place to build an empire like Europe).

Regretably, this means that the struggle for America could lead to a nastier, larger, WW1.
 

Umbral

On the "empty america" option: I suspect the Norse will spread out extremly rapidly, courtesy of their lack of a goverment structure and high level of ship tech.
Without natives, their colonies are just not going to stop, and I would expect the Greenlanders to emigrate down as the climate worsens.
(With colonies in place, there will be ships available in TTL)

If the Soultreans turn out to be of european apperance, it may also make the Norse slightly more inclined to cooperate, and we may see more tech transfer.
Also, if they are of european apperance, it will be impossible to tell the children of intermarriages apart from europens. This will smoothen integration.
 

Gimple

Native American's were a major influence in the colonial race. Without the gold, there would be very little incentive for the conquistadors. They were the ones who ultimately came back with reports on how big this land was and how close to paradise it was.
If eventually some group like the pilgrims did decide to move here and get away from persecution in Europe and form their little cult enclave far far away. Who would they have been able to steal food from in the first winter. They would have died or ate each other to get through the first winter.
If by some fluke colonization did start and a revolution did ensue. The eastern seaboard would have been a monarchy. The whole concept of the US was based more on the Iroquois confederacy then on the French Revolution.

On the Europeans finding Europeans option. It would have been no different. Some anthropologists these days have been suggesting that Native Americans are a blend of Europeans and Asians who crossed over Glaciers that covered the whole northern hemisphere at some point.
The Vikings would have treated them no better no matter what their skin color was. The vikings would enslave and torture people in Europe for fun why not in New Foundland.
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
on the empty America option:
No Corn, Potatoes, tobacco, chocolate, etc (they would exist, but as wild plants very different than the domesticated varieties the Europeans in our TL encountered) how many butterflies would there be from this?
 

Fraxinensis

Interesting ideas.

I agree that the Solutrean natives, even if they were white and European-looking, would be treated quite poorly. After all, Europeans often treated each other badly, so why would they treat the Solutreans any better? However, I wonder if it would be easier for these natives to eventually become an integrated part of society. If they had any kind of "we came from the East" stories, they might be understood to be descendents from some forgotten group of Europeans (which they were...but not quite in the sense I'm thinking of) and might provoke interest in their history and culture, and perhaps even their religion (trying to find elements of Christianity or Judaism, perhaps).

In a totally empty North America, I imagine the settlers would do better than Gimple states. They would know the land was empty, and therefore they might be more likely to be supplied for the hard conditions. I realize that settlers didn't come expecting the Indians would help them, but they may have imagined it as a land where "if Indians can live there easily, so can I!" If it were empty, perhaps colonists would be better prepared to eke out a living on their own.
 

Umbral

The effects of the megafauna on earlier colonists might be considerable. I can see the Norse being quite impressed by Mammoths, cave bears, sabretooths, (was there dire wolves?) etc.

They would probably name it Jotunheim, land of the giants.
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
No Cave Bears (Ursus spelaeus) in thye Americas, but there was the Short Faced bear (Arctodus simus ) which was even more of a bad ass


 

Admiral Brown

There are several indications that the Polinesyans did get to Chile in the XIII or XIV Century (chicken bones have been found in Chile). We don't know what happened to them IOTL (they may have returned, they may have died while returning, they may have been killed by Amerindians or they may have inetermarriaged with them and integrated into their society). In an "empty American scenario", how long would it take them to populate Americans??? Would they have got to Central America by the XV century???
 

Admiral Brown

Continuing with the "empty Americas" scenario, we must remember that the resources of the Americas were esential for Europe in the process that lead to the industrial revolution and to Europe's universal hegemony. If the Americans are empty, and colonisation fails or nobody sees the point of it (in the XVI century), Europe may be a lot weaker. Spain won't have the money to fioght the Ottomans, who may advance more into Europe than IOTL, and who won't be weacken by inflation caused by the importation of Peruvian gold in the form of coins.

Europe may not expand at all, and may keep fighting pointless wars for the possetion of Northern Africa and Eastern Europe against the Ottomans, and for North-Eastern Europe against the Orthodox Russians. This, toghether with the lack of New World crops, might be enough to butterfly away the industrial revolution:eek:
 

Admiral Brown

mojojojo said:
on the empty America option:
No Corn, Potatoes, tobacco, chocolate, etc (they would exist, but as wild plants very different than the domesticated varieties the Europeans in our TL encountered) how many butterflies would there be from this?
Click to expand...

A lot. For example, I think I read somewhere there was a link between the introduction of American crops in the XVI century and the increase of the population in Western Africa (and the later Bantu expansion).
 

Admiral Brown

Gimple said:
Native American's were a major influence in the colonial race. Without the gold, there would be very little incentive for the conquistadors. They were the ones who ultimately came back with reports on how big this land was and how close to paradise it was.
If eventually some group like the pilgrims did decide to move here and get away from persecution in Europe and form their little cult enclave far far away. Who would they have been able to steal food from in the first winter. They would have died or ate each other to get through the first winter.
Click to expand...


I agree. Colonization will probably be delayed, as there won't be a point in risking such a dangerous voyage for colonising an empty land with no gold or precios metals. Specially after most expeditions would have failed.

You see, Amerindians did cause trouble to settlers, but overall they were "benefitial" (for the settlers, not for them). Specially in hard times. In an empty Americas scenario, Columbus crue might have died of hunger, and so might have the vikings in Greenland, if it is true that they got some food through trade or raids from the Skaerlings at some point.
 

Susano

Banned
Admiral Brown said:
A lot. For example, I think I read somewhere there was a link between the introduction of American crops in the XVI century and the increase of the population in Western Africa (and the later Bantu expansion).
Click to expand...

Yes, the potato is the big factor. Its telling that in Cenrtal and East Europe potato more less became the main food source within just some centuries. This is the base of the many factors that allowed those regions (most prominently Germany) to catch up so enormously in population numbers in the 19th century. Without that, the mediterrean territories in Europe still will have a massive advantage vis a vis the eastern and northern European territories.
 

Atom

We have limited evidence that there was contact between Easter islanders and the Andean coast (a few chicken bones mostly). This would suggest to me that there would be limited settlements on the west coast of South America. It should also be noted that there will likely be a settlement by a people with similarities to the Eskimos or other arctic cultures.

There also was a TL on SHWI about an empty america, like you posited here.

It should be noted that (as others have said) that the lack of native Ameircans will significantly inhibit growth by European (or asian) settlers and will stop the large economic boom we see in 16th century Europe fueled by Spanish silver. It will aslo inhibit population growth (2/3 of all people on the world use an American crop as their staple food source), and industrial development.
 

wkwillis

The book on American crops is "Chilis to Chocolate".
Corn
Peanuts
Beans (Broadbeans, lentils, chickpeas are the precolumbian varieties)
Sunflower (vitamin E and cooking oil, big in Russia)
Squash
Potatos
Tomatos
Avocados
Pecans
Brazilnuts
Chilis
Chocolate
Vanilla
Allspice
Tobacco (insecticide)
Quinine
Wormseed (the first effective vermicide)
If the Caribbean islands were empty, they would be populated by slaves from Africa. Madeira, Cape Verde, and the Azores were quickly colonised by slave plantations just before the Europeans invaded the Americas.
 

Fraxinensis

I don't know if European settlement of the Americas would be completely cut off by an "empty America" scenario. There would be no slaves nor gold for Columbus (or TTL Columbus equivolent) to bring back to Spain, and thus the Spanish might never consider the idea that the Americas were full of resources.

However, the lack of natives might prompt further exploration of the Americas: if Columbus doesn't find anyone at first, his crew might go farther West and figure out how large the land is on his first voyage. While there would be no direct knowledge of gold there, they might simply expect that another continent, at least as big as Europe, will have plentiful resources. In fact, I wonder whether empty lands would be seen as a gift to the Spanish, who might still need a new place to send conquistadors (imagine the propaganda value: you have served well and driven off the moors, we'll give you land in the New World. I'm not an expert on Latin American history, but knowing how large a population of Indians there are in many Latin American countries I suspect that Spaniards going to an empty New World would face a much different experience than those who went over in OTL.
 

wkwillis

People knew about Madeira for years before they settled it. They wanted slaves, not land.
The vikings would have filled the land using population growth, the way the US and Quebec did. It would have taken them about the same time to do it, too. About three hundred years with immigration, three hundred and fifty without.
The primary barrier to expansion into the Americas is that there weren't any honeybees that were specialised for European crops. When the Pilgrims got to Boston they found an apple orchard without apples.
 

Blue Max

Now I think about it, Columbus' trip to the Americas would be a bitter disappointment to Spain--this was supposed to be China and Japan, not another landmass! Besides, aside from possible megafauna (might be edible too, you never know), Columbus has largely wasted Spain's money.

The Americas would probably have Viking, Polynesian, and Inuits building up to a respectable number by the 1600s--one possibility is the American Vikings are out fishing and happen to bump into a European ship; that could re-establish contact that lapsed for hundreds of years.

One real trump card in all of this is China and the Asian countries. China can't remain Isolationist forever; and neither can Japan or Korea. Its entirely possible that China begins the Industrial Revolution; spawning its neighbors, Korea, Siam and Japan to all join in the Industrial Race. This could be in the 1800s timeframe here, while Europe has been massively kicked by the Ottomans who have put Venice and Warsaw under siege.

Eventually, if Europe doesn't rise to do it, Japan, China, Korea, Siam and Perhaps a Mughal Empire in India begin to move into global imperialism. Such a world would probably see China grabbing huge territories in Siberia, Japan, Korea and Siam all building naval empires on the Pacific Coastline of America, and the Mughals emerging as a frontline power between east and west. At 2008, they'd probably be at about 1900 in claims and technology...
 
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