Aroostook War

Ok, this is that last thread I post in under a minute. What can I say, I'm having an imaginative few minutes!

The Aroostook War leads to an actual war between Britain and the USA in 1839. The POD is that the Maine milita actually fights the British forces and get massacred, galvanizing American public opinion. Who wins? What are the long term effects?
 
At this point its a clear win for Britain, probably gaining them upper Maine and some more of the West, possibly all of Oregon Country. The US is still a long way behind industrially and while Canada is still very weak, especially coming just after the rebellions of 1837, Britain has the sea-lift to win the war especially as the Rebellions means it has considerable forces pre-positioned in North America.
 
At this point its a clear win for Britain, probably gaining them upper Maine and some more of the West, possibly all of Oregon Country. The US is still a long way behind industrially and while Canada is still very weak, especially coming just after the rebellions of 1837, Britain has the sea-lift to win the war especially as the Rebellions means it has considerable forces pre-positioned in North America.


Agreed, there is no way the USA will pull out a victory. The question is only if they can pull out a status-quo peace, or how much will be lost. This is also going to further cement the British as America's enemy, but on the other hand it would also settle border disputes between the two nations. And the economic ties between them will be temporarily severed, but would be repaired. On the other hand, the ACW is coming up, and Britain may be more inclined to intervene in this scenario.


Well this thread is already past the six posts that thread had.
 
Agreed, there is no way the USA will pull out a victory. The question is only if they can pull out a status-quo peace, or how much will be lost.

Britain wouldn't take huge chunks of land. Certainly, the northern half of Maine would go to Canada. It's also likely we'll see Oregon go to Canada. OTL, Britain and America settled the Oregon Dispute in 1842. ITTL, it's likely it'll still be settled in 1842... but after a British Aroostook victory, it probably won't go the same way this time around. :)

Of course, this gives even more incentive for a Mexican-American War. I don't think that'll turn out too differently, though. Given that the OTL Mexican-American war was mid 40s, only a few years after the Aroostook War would end, it'd be hard to push it much earlier. America needs time to recover. With the added incentive for California, it probably wouldn't occur too much later, either. Perhaps the US pushes for more of Baja California ITTL, though?

Unless, of course, Britain decides to rain hell on America in the peace treaty. Even with a greater need for the Californian coast, a disarmed America probably wouldn't attack a Mexico allied to Britain.

This is also going to further cement the British as America's enemy, but on the other hand it would also settle border disputes between the two nations. And the economic ties between them will be temporarily severed, but would be repaired. On the other hand, the ACW is coming up, and Britain may be more inclined to intervene in this scenario.

"Coming up" is 15-20 years in the future. A major war and especially shared defeat could also temporarily unify competing American factions, pushing the ACW even later. I think you'll see a heavier rivalry, but not too much more overt antagonism. Each side has too much to gain from being friendly. I don't see British-American relations being too different once we hit WWI (this is assuming no butterflies, of course).
 
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